Many surveys and headlines recently claim there is a large percentage of Americans who support political violence. Some estimates have been around 25% – but some have gone as high as 40%! This is very scary. But researchers like my guest Sean Westwood have shown that many people are massively overstating the problem. This overstatement is leading to hysterical and unhelpful framings and debates. Worst of all, these exaggerated fears can even contribute to a self-reinforcing cycle… a self-fulfilling prophecy. Topics discussed include: what the faulty surveys and studies are missing; how bad survey design (ambiguous questions, or leading questions) can lead to faulty estimates; what more accurate survey results tell us; how exaggerated fears can contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy; and why people embrace and promote overly pessimistic narratives.
Episode links:
- YouTube (includes video)
- Apple Podcasts
- Spotify
Resources related to or mentioned in our talk:
- Paper by Westwood et al: “Current research overstates American support for political violence”, finding ~3% of Americans supporting political violence
- A study by Democracy Fund showing similar numbers as Westwood’s
- A study by Wintemute et al examining support for civil war
- Survey that used “American patriots” language, which we criticized in this talk as a leading question
- Retracted survey that found 20% of young Americans believe the Holocaust wasn’t real; Pew found it was more like 3%
- My op-ed on the importance of not overreacting to big, emotion-producing events (like assassination attempts)
TRANSCRIPT