Categories
podcast

What’s it like living without a belief in free will?, with physicist Daniel Whiteson

A talk with Daniel Whiteson, a professor of physics and astronomy about free will. Daniel is also the co-author of “We Have No Idea,” about the many unknowns remaining in physics, and the co-host of the podcast Daniel and Jorge Explain The Universe

Our talk focuses on something I think isn’t often discussed: what are the effects on one’s life from not believing in free will. How does that change one’s life? What’s one’s experience of life like? Is it dramatically different from the life of someone who believes in free will? Other topics discussed: Our thoughts on why we think free will is unlikely to exist; psychological and emotional aspects of living without a belief in free will; the anxiety and even anger that some people can have about the idea that we lack free will; the idea that a lack of belief in free will can be part of a spiritual, positive way of experiencing the world; and more. 

For a transcript, see here.

Episode links:

This is a reshare of an older podcast episode. For some recommended resources on free will, see the original blog post.

Categories
podcast

The news is polarizing us. Can Tangle News help?

A talk with journalist Isaac Saul, founder of Tangle News (readtangle.com), which shares takes on current events from across the political spectrum and which I think is great, from a depolarization perspective. Here’s what Isaac said about why he started Tangle:

“I started Tangle because I recognized that the news industry was broken. My work was getting published in a lot of different places, and I realized people trusted it not based on what I was saying — but based on where I was saying it. Readers on the left would trust nothing I wrote if it showed up in a conservative-leaning news outlet, and vice versa. This is how I realized just how strong the information bubble was. So I had a concept I wanted to execute: A newsletter where no matter who you were you would encounter political opinions that you did not agree with.”

I think Tangle is doing great work, from a polarization-reduction perspective. I think the more Americans there are who read Tangle, the less toxically polarized we’ll be. (Learn about my own polarization-related work here: american-anger.com.)

Topics Isaac and I discuss include: aspects of Tangle News that make it depolarizing and anger-reducing; how Isaac conceives of the problem of political polarization; his work debunking “the election was stolen” narratives in 2020, and more.

Transcript is below.

Episode links:

Resources related to or mentioned in this talk:

TRANSCRIPT

Zach Elwood: Hello and welcome to the People Who Read People podcast. I’m Zachary Elwood. This is a podcast about understanding people better, and understanding ourselves better — and sometimes it focuses on political polarization. You can learn more about this podcast at PeopleWhoReadPeople.com

A note for anyone listening to the audio version of this; this was recorded as a video talk and you can find that video on the youtube channel for my podcast. 

On this episode, I talk to Isaac Saul, a journalist and the creator of Tangle News – you can subscribe to Tangle and learn more about it at readtangle.com. Why Isaac created Tangle, and the work they do, is very much related to toxic polarization. 

I’ll read some things Isaac wrote about why he started Tangle: 

I started Tangle because I recognized that the news industry was broken. My work was getting published in a lot of different places, and I realized people trusted it not based on what I was saying — but based on where I was saying it. Readers on the left would trust nothing I wrote if it showed up in a conservative-leaning news outlet, and vice versa. This is how I realized just how strong the information bubble was. So I had a concept I wanted to execute: A newsletter where no matter who you were you would encounter political opinions that you did not agree with. That seemed healthy to me. Then I launched Tangle as a side project, and as it grew I decided to quit my job and go “all-in” on building it out.

Today, our readers span the political spectrum: Roughly 40% of our readers self-identify as liberal, 30% self-identify as conservative, and the rest say they are independent or outside the left-right binary.

And again, that was Isaac Saul writing about Tangle News. 

One review on his site from a reader says ““Tangle is the best discovery I’ve made in the last month. Isaac Saul has the remarkably unique ability to summarize what both sides of the political aisle are saying in his own words, in a fair and charitable way. Tangle is a daily read for me because it helps me avoid the confirmation bias of just listening to what ‘my side’ is saying, helping me to draw my own conclusions in a more informed way.” end quote

If you haven’t yet checked out Tangle, I highly recommend signing up for it. I really do believe the more Americans read Tangle, the less toxically polarized we’d be, so reading Tangle and sharing it with others is one small and easy thing you can do to combat toxic polarization and team-based thinking. 

Okay here’s the talk with Isaac Saul, of Tangle News…

Zach: Hey, Isaac, thanks for joining me.

Isaac Saul: Thanks for having me. Glad to be here, Zach.

Zach: I just want to say I’m a huge fan of your work. I often promote your work to people. I often say that the more Americans that read Tangle, the less divided and less toxically divided we’ll be, so I just wanted to say that first. And I’m a big fan. I’m curious to ask, too, how do you see the work that Tangle does relating to our toxic polarization problem?

Isaac: Yeah, it’s a really good question. First of all, what’s kind of interesting about my story is I didn’t really get into this work from a mission-oriented perspective, I would say. I created Tangle because I wanted a product like it that didn’t exist anywhere. I found myself feeling like I couldn’t understand what was happening in the news unless I went and read the Wall Street Journal, read the New York Times, read the Huffington Post, read Fox News, read their opinion sections, watched Fox News, watched CNN, listened to a couple of podcasts, and be like, “Oh, now I’ve heard all the perspectives there are about this debate on this one issue, it would be really convenient if this all existed in one place.” And that was kind of the fundamental idea for Tangle. It was explaining an issue and then the debate and why people were divided about it, and then sharing a few views from the Left and sharing a few views from the Right.

What’s happened since we started it is that I’ve seen the effect it’s had on people and I’ve seen the responses when we ask our readers and listeners the impact it’s had on them in surveys that we do at the end of the year in our newsletter. And I felt the experience of consuming the news through the lens of Tangle as the author of Tangle and how it’s changed my own worldviews and my own perspectives about issues and the divisiveness and all those things, and what I’ve seen is that fundamentally, I’m much more open-minded. And I’m much more skeptical and I’m much more respectful of the people who I disagree with because I see the best versions of their arguments and their perspectives out there, and it gives me a way to understand and respect what they think and what they feel. Politics are personal, obviously, but we’re also all products of the experiences we’ve had, the media bubbles we live in, the friend groups we are in. And just as you look at somebody who you might disagree with politically, whether they’re a far Right Trump voter or a far Left Bernie lover or whatever and you think they’re disgusting or wrong or stupid for whatever reason, they feel that way about you too in a lot of ways. And I think it’s important to kind of recognize that fundamentally and start from there with a little humility about your position.

I want Tango to be a place where people from across the political spectrum can gather and trust the news they’re getting and have a sort of starting common ground to jump off from. But as an added bonus, I think I’m seeing that we’re helping people moderate their views a little bit, or just become more respectful or understanding of the other side, which certainly our country needs desperately right now given how divided we are.

Zach: Yeah, that’s the interesting thing about your work, I think, is there’s these meta-level things that are happening with the way you’ve approached it where, for example, like you said, I think the way you’ve done the work makes it easier for people to see how easy it is for people to reach different conclusions on things. For example, your take on Trump being removed from the ballot in Colorado. I think it would help people who their initial reaction– for a lot of people on the Left– was like that was a good decision for a lot of people. But seeing your take on it, even if someone ends up disagreeing with it, helps them see… And including the takes from other sources, too. It just helps people see the range of ideas that one can have. And to me, that’s kind of the fundamental problem of toxic polarization. The contempt that’s involved is because with our narratives becoming more and more diverged, it becomes harder to see the more rational ways that somebody has built their narratives because we’re all filtering the way we want to filter. So, I think that’s a really interesting meta-level aspect of your work. Yeah.

Isaac: Yeah. One of the things I would just say about that is there’s a reason Marjorie Taylor Greene is a household name and other lesser-known representatives or senators are not. And it’s because the Left wants to make her the face of the Republican Party. They want her to be representative of Republican thought because she has views that are further out on the fringe. And that’s kind of the game both sides play. They elevate the worst arguments and the worst people from one side of the aisle and try and do their best to make them representative of the party as a whole or of the thought line as a whole.

Zach: Unintentionally. It’s unconsciously and sometimes consciously. Yeah.

Isaac: Yeah, yeah, exactly. And I think that’s just something important for people to remember. It’s that if you’re a partisan at all or you have strong partisan preferences, you’re not getting the best representation of the other side, typically, and of their arguments. And that’s something we try and do. We show you the fringe, but also show you the really strong more compelling arguments from our estimation as an editorial team, the stuff that we find really compelling. And I think it’s working for a lot of people in that structure.

Zach: The other meta-level thing I think your work does is by giving your take, it actually makes people trust you more. Because especially when we’re more polarized and more divided, there’s often a suspicion of what someone’s biases are or what they think. Because we all have our own opinions, our own takes, our own biases, journalists have theirs, especially when we’re more polarised. But I think giving your take sets people at ease. They know that you’re striving towards the truth. You’re struggling with these ideas that it helps them kind of see behind the process, and I think that vulnerability is hugely important. I’m curious if you’ve seen… Do you see things that way? The benefit there, the strength there.

Isaac: Yeah. When I first started this, including my own personal perspective wasn’t something that I was keen to do. But a lot of people when I was first testing the newsletter format and sending it out to people, the response that I got from tonnes of people was like, “Well, what do you think? You’re the politics reporter.” My friends and family and stuff, they’re like, “I’ve read all these arguments and now I just feel like I’m left with no sort of conclusion..”

Zach: “Guide me.”

Isaac: Yeah. Yeah. And I think what’s been really interesting for me is some people really object to that. I get emails sometimes from new subscribers who are like, “I would love this if your opinion wasn’t in it, but your opinion ruins it because you tip the scales one way or another.” And the way I’ve come to think about it is this is an act of transparency. My promise to you is I’m going to be honest about my view. I include these disclaimers before and after that’s like, “You don’t have to agree with me. This is not supposed to be the end all be all. But I think you’re consuming information that I’m collecting, perspectives I’m collecting, you’re consuming the work of a team that I’ve built. And it’s important for you to know what my views are and it’s probably helpful for you to know. And if my take can offer an original perspective or lens or criticism– which I hope it does sometimes, and I think it does sometimes– then that’s adding something to the conversation.” And when I don’t feel like I know or I don’t have a strong opinion, I just say that. I’ve gotten really good at just saying I actually don’t know where I land on this position because I find both sides’ arguments really compelling, and that’s my take for the day. And sometimes I feel really strongly and yeah, I want to try and convince people of my view, but I give myself that space to do that so elsewhere in the newsletter, we can shoot as straight and down the middle as possible.

Zach: It’s kind of related to an instinct I had when I was writing my “Defusing American Anger” book, which is depolarization-related. I had a similar kind of instinct not just to guide people– because actually in that case, it wasn’t to guide people. Specifically, it was to say… Because people will inevitably assume you have biases, so to make them clear, actually, is by showing that vulnerability and that transparency. I think it makes people trust you more, even if they don’t disagree with you. For example, I’ve disagreed with you on some things, but I know that you’re, like me, striving towards the truth, and we’re all going to disagree on various things. I think that’s the meta-level point. Another meta-level thing you do is you’ve shared the criticisms you get from people on the Left and the Right who say, in a very amusing way, it’s like your share of people being like you obviously have a Republican bias so you obviously have a Democrat slash liberal bias. I think there’s also a meta-level value there, too, of showing how easy it is for us to see other people as biased or other people as having an agenda. So, do you see that the same way of highlighting that complexity there?

Isaac: Yeah, totally. First of all, I do find it amusing. I often get emails that come in five minutes apart of somebody accusing me of being a closet Trumper or being a closet liberal or whatever. So, sometimes it’s kind of a cathartic response to that. Instead of responding to them in a frustrating way, I just share those responses with my readers. But I also think it’s important because it illustrates that not just that different media organizations can be biased or different perspectives might be biased, but that that bias is very much in the eye of the beholder. And our view of what’s bias or our view of what’s tilted one way or the other is informed by our own personal biases. I mean, most of the people who accuse me of being Conservative are Liberal, and most of the people who accuse me of being Liberal are Conservative. It’s not center Left people writing in saying, “I can tell you’re also center Left,” because they might see an article where they feel like their views or my takes are represented and that’s not objectionable to them or whatever. It’s always coming from the other side, which I think has just taught me that that perspective is from the partisan lens. And that’s okay, I just have to be okay with that. And I try and communicate that to people. I say, “You might think my view here or my position here is really right, but guess what? It’s in line with 60% of the country. So, is 60% of the country right? I don’t think so. I think I’m just having a kind of moderate perspective here that’s maybe a pretty commonly held view and this is where I fall.” Sometimes I have really radical views and I know they’re radical. Like, I’ve written about my really extreme political positions. One of my views that I don’t think is political or related to any politics is I’m vehemently anti-prison. A lot of people think I’m very Left because of that. I think that’s ridiculous. A lot of libertarians are also really vehemently anti-prison in a small government perspective, which is part of my worldview too. And so I write about that and it’s like, I know that’s a fringe extreme position and I’m acknowledging that. But it’s fascinating for me when I share a view that I think is pretty down the middle and it brings out all the people sort of accusing me of being one way or the other.

Zach: Yeah, I think it’s… Again, I think it’s highlighting the complexity of these things, you know, these simplistic ideas that many of us have about what’s liberal or what’s conservative. Those words, in a lot of cases, don’t mean much. There’s that book by the Lewis brothers, “The Myth of Left and Right”, which I think was good for examining a lot of the ambiguity in these terms. And people in conflict resolution space will talk about emphasizing the complexity in these areas, or what can break the spell of the filtering for is this us versus them? Is this person on my team or another team? So I think that’s another way that you’re helping break some of that and emphasize that complexity.

Getting back to the first question I asked about toxic polarization, I know that you said when you started this work that wasn’t your focus, but obviously, I would imagine you’ve formed some opinions about the problem of toxic polarization over the years. And I’m curious if you have your own kind of take on how you see the problem. For example, my take is basically that it’s a complex problem, but I think the gist of it is that so many of us have distorted and overly pessimistic views of each other or overly negative views. And that because we’re social creatures, that leads to this feedback loop of increasingly negative views of each other where all of our grievances start getting lumped into these two different buckets. Right? That’s kind of how I view it, as an overly distorted, overly pessimistic set of views that Americans or any group in conflict has that goes into a snowball effect. But I’m curious, do you have your own take on that? What do you think of that conceptualization?

Isaac: Yeah. No, I think that perspective is kind of adjacent to my own in a lot of ways. I definitely, because of the work that I do and my background, I paint a lot of the blame on media. And I think media consumption and the stuff that the news quote-unquote “is feeding people”—which is now basically entertainment—is a huge contributing factor to that kind of negative views or those kinds of negative views people hold of those on the other side of political issues of them. I also think we’re living in an era where people are increasingly online and much less in person and in community with each other. Everything from the attendance of church, to community meetings, to soccer games, to whatever, those kinds of things are really good at exposing people to others in person that they disagree with and learning that they can kind of live side by side with people like that. And I think as a country, we’re doing a lot less of that. There’s a lot of social research out there suggesting that political tribes are sort of the new communities for a lot of Americans and it’s how people feel connected and seen. They join Facebook groups and they join political movements and they get behind candidates, and then they get lined up with a bunch of like-minded people. And like you said, they get into that feedback loop and they just get fed more and more reinforced ideas about the world and their enemies and all this stuff. That really contributes to it. There’s so many different things that I think are happening at once that make it such a hard problem to deal with. I tell people regularly… One of the most common questions I get in the newsletter is, “Hey, I have a daughter who’s a non-binary progressive activist, and I’m a 75-year-old lifelong Conservative and I have no idea how to talk to her. Do you have any advice?” Or, “Hey, my neighbor is a hardcore Trumper and he’s flying the Trump flag and I have no idea how to talk to him.” And I always just say, “Go talk to them.” Actually, the talking is the solution.

I have rules. When people talk to me about politics, I always try and ask three questions before I say anything about my own opinions or start sharing my views. I go into every conversation with the idea that I have more to learn from hearing about this person’s perspective than I have to teach about sharing my own perspective and trying to convince them of my worldview. I think having humility like that is really important and really helpful. Again, I said at the top, politics are personal and most people are informed by their experiences and the media they consume and the social circles they’re in. And you’re not going to break people out of that in one conversation, you’re not going to convince them of something in one conversation, so it’s better to learn and listen and hear and then let them reciprocate that kind of open-mindedness, and then you can sort of share your views. So, that’s the kind of advice I give people who want to bridge that gap. You know, a six-pack of beer or a good meal often helps and that’s a good way to sort of cut through some of the tension and awkwardness. But it’s a really touchy time and I know there are issues that feels super third rail for a lot of people like they can’t possibly be discussed, but I think it’s important that we do. And there’s a time and place for it. I don’t think you should go harangue your boss at work tomorrow about their political views, because you might disagree. But if you’re at a happy hour and something comes up in the news and you’re interested, ask some questions and be open-minded to the answer. And be genuinely open-minded. Don’t just ask questions to try and set them up to get in your little comment or fact or whatever, ask questions and actually listen and learn and try and be understanding of where people are coming from. I think if more of us were doing that, we’d be in a much better spot.

Zach: Yeah, I was just remembering a quote from you from one of your newsletters a few months ago that I retweeted of something like, you know, that the main problem is that so many people think that there’s things we can’t talk about, but the solution is talking about these things more. Yeah, that was a good quote. I’m not doing it justice, but it was better that way. Isaac laughs] Yeah. I often think when people talk about… You know, I think they’re going to be an inclination to feel like, “Well, what do these minor interactions I have with people matter online or in person with my political opponents?” But I think, to what you’re saying, it’s like every positive or respectful interaction you have with somebody that’s your political opponent helps break the cycle of contempt a little bit. You have to think about it in terms of how those things bubble up and help form our culture, and every contemptuous interaction you have deepens our divides. That’s kind of how I think of it and kind of how I started my journey thinking about my own interactions with people online after Trump was elected, for example.

Changing the topic a little bit, I only recently learned that one of the big things that had gotten you a lot of attention for your work was that after the 2020 election or maybe leading up to it too, you had done a thread of various debunking of various ‘the election was rigged’ narratives. And I was curious, was that a planned-out thing that you did? Or was it just in the moment like, “I’m frustrated, I’m passionate, I’m going to start debunking some of these things.”

Isaac: Yeah, a little bit of both, I would say. I mean, I had warned people that these claims were coming. First of all, if you go back to September or August or whatever of 2020, what a lot of Trump officials and Trump himself were saying was, “There’s no way we lose this election unless it’s rigged.” And so they—

Zach: Yeah, I was on his email list. I was seeing that for months before, and I was also sharing and being like, “This is not going to be good.”

Isaac: Yeah. And so in that sense, I was prepared for it and I expected it. I also have a long background of reporting on politics, but specifically, I have reported on elections before and interviewed a lot of election experts and done election security reporting. And so I was pretty well versed in how ballots were certified and how elections just fundamentally worked. And so when I started seeing some of the first claims that the election was being stolen or was stolen pop up, I had really basic answers that were just… Like, I could watch the video and say, “Oh, I know they’re curing a ballot here. This isn’t people filling out someone’s ballot. I know exactly what’s going on here.” And so that helped me kind of start the train where I just said, “I’m going to start tracking these election fraud claims. If you see any, send them to me.” And then I did that for the first four or five hours and I saw my thread blow up on Twitter. And then it was sort of like, “Okay, clear the decks. I’m going to do this for the next 48 hours,” and it was basically like a nonstop marathon in the first few days after the election ended. And then I started getting really confident in what I was doing because first of all, I think one of the things that worked was that I was conceding moments where things might be actual voter fraud. Voter fraud is real. It happens. So there were certain stories that were popping up, really local stories about somebody filling out a bunch of ballots for their family or something that were probably real fraud stories. And when I saw that, I would say, “Okay, I don’t know this. I can’t debunk this one, it might actually be real because this kind of stuff happens in elections. But remember we’re talking about 20 or 30 or 40 or 50 or 60 or 70,000 votes in swing states, not some 18-year-old kid stealing his mom and dad’s ballot and filling them out.”

So, I saw that traction happening and felt like I was really well-positioned to address it. A lot of the stuff was really easy and some of it was really hard, it took digging. I didn’t understand what I was looking at, I didn’t even know where the video was from. It had been reposted or reshard so many times that finding the original was impossible. And then I’d dig it up and be like, “Oh, this was actually from 2012 or something. I don’t know why this is going viral.” Yeah, and I think it works and people were really encouraged by it and felt like it was a really good resource. It got tonnes and tonnes of retweets and attention, and I just sort of threaded in some promotions for Tangle in there. And it became my beat a little bit. In the months after 2020, I wrote a bunch of articles about election fraud claims, got interviewed a bunch. I went on a Conservative radio show where the host offered $5,000 to anybody who could stump me with some claim or something and we did a little bit like that. There was a lot of really fun and serious and not-so-serious stuff that came out of it, and part of it was that Tangle grew a lot in that time period, which was really rewarding because it was exhausting and draining and took up a lot of time.

Zach: Real quick, something I wanted to ask you about that I’m curious about. When it comes to the “2000 Mules” movie, do you know of a single resource that would be the greatest resource for a quick form debunking of the claims in that movie?

Isaac: Well, I wrote a piece about “2000 Mules” so I would suggest that.

Zach: Okay, that’s good.

Isaac: Yeah, that was one that came up a year or two after. Which, for what it’s worth, is self evidently kind of ridiculous the whole thing. I mean, the initial claim was that the Dominion Voting Systems were flipping votes. And then there was the Facebook stuff and Mark Zuckerberg and Zuck bucks, and then it was Hunter Biden’s story was suppressed, and then they pivoted to this whole other theory that there were people stuffing ballots in major cities all over the country. The story basically changed every time somebody got this stuff knocked down. And all I would say is I wrote a multi-thousand-word piece on the “2000 Mules” documentary and people can go read it on readtangle.com if they want, but the quickest and easiest way to debunk that stuff is that the Georgia Bureau of Investigations asked Dinesh D’Souza for the evidence he had so they could investigate the claims that he put in the movie, and he wouldn’t turn any of the evidence over. So, I don’t know what else you need to know aside from that, basically.

Zach: I think that’s generally a good way to tell if something’s legitimate. People who want the truth to get out there will not put up any obstacles, they’ll make their data and their information public however they can. And when somebody is not willing to do that– for people who want to help put the pieces together for whatever malfeasance happened– that’s a clear red flag. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, there’s a lot more we could talk about, but I know you’ve got to get going. And I just want to say I’m a huge fan of your work and love reading the newsletter, and I promote it every chance I get. So, thank you.

Isaac: Thanks, Zach. I appreciate the time, man. And yeah, I certainly encourage any of your listeners to check it out and give it a try. They can read for free. We’re a big tent party, so we’re trying to welcome anybody who is trying to assess through some of the BS in the media right now.

Zach: That was Isaac Saul of Tangle News. You can learn more about Tangle and sign up for it at readtangle.com. I highly recommend it.

Categories
podcast

The allure of deciphering behavior, with Rounders creator Brian Koppelman

A talk with screenwriter/producer Brian Koppelman, known for many movies and TV shows, including the poker movie Rounders, the show Billions, and the series Super Pumped: The Battle For Uber. He’s also the host of the podcast The Moment. We talk about: his initial interest in poker; how they got the idea for Rounders; poker tells in Rounders; the allure of figuring out what people’s behavior means; the difficulty of reading behaviors in most real-world situations; and the anxiety-reducing benefits of transcendental meditation.

A transcript is below.

Episode links:

Resources related to our talk:

TRANSCRIPT

Zach Elwood: Welcome to the People Who Read People podcast with me, Zach Elwood. You can learn more about it, and sign up for a premium subscription, at PeopleWhoReadPeople.com

On this episode I talk to Brian Koppelman, who you may know as the writer of the poker movie Rounders, and the creator and writer of a bunch of other shows and movies, including the show Billions, and the recent series about Uber called Superpumped. Brian also has his own podcast called The Moment, and he’s interviewed a ton of interesting people, including celebrities, TV and movie writers and creators, and quite a few poker players. 

One reason I wanted to talk to Brian is because I once, years ago, wrote a blog post about other poker tells in Rounders besides the obvious Oreo cookie tell. Basically some of the things the characters said during the hands mapped over to common verbal patterns that I’ve written about in my poker books. You can find that blog post of mine on readingpokertells.com or by searching for ‘more poker tells in rounders.’ You might enjoy checking that out before listening actually. So I wanted to ask Brian about that stuff.  

Other topics Brian and I discuss are: what led him to working on Rounders; his childhood interest in poker; his interest in behavioral clues, which I’ve found seem to feature prominently in his work; the difficulties of reading and interpreting behavior in real-world situations; the potential meanings of someone wearing an old Full Tilt poker hat; the downsides of being too confident in thinking you can read people; why you should watch David Mamet’s movie House of Games; his interest in transcendental meditation and the benefits he’s found from that; and his thoughts on what it takes to conduct a good interview.
You can follow Brian on Instagram at @briankoppelman. His website is at https://briankoppelman.com.

Okay, here’s the talk with Brian Koppelman.

Zach: Hey, Brian, thanks for joining me.

Brian Koppelman: It’s my pleasure to be here with you. As I’ve mentioned to you, I’ve read your stuff and I find it fascinating, compelling, and useful.

Zach: Thanks, Brian. It’s a big honor for you to say that and for you to join me. I’m excited. Maybe we can start with… I’ve watched a good amount of stuff, including “Rounders” and “Billions” and I watched the Uber show recently, “Super Pumped”. And I noticed, I could be imagining it, but it seemed like there was a theme of reading people that was above average in your work. For example, in Billions, you had several instances of Mason getting reads on people and these kinds of things, and some of those clips I uploaded to social media because I found them fun and interesting. Am I right in sensing that you’ve had a longtime interest in people’s behavior and finding clues in the people’s behavior?

Brian: I loved when you put that stuff up on Instagram or wherever else I came across it because it’s always fun. But more than that, it’s rewarding when someone who’s sort of a domain expert picks up on something that you’re doing. And a domain expert whose work you’re aware of. And so for me, that was super cool. It was like, yeah. And for David, when I say me, I’m always talking about David Levien as well, my partner in doing this stuff. Because when I say ‘we’, think about things like domain experts. You know, you’re not making the show, you’re not making the piece of art for people who are experts in whichever particular domain might surface, but you are aware of the fact and we are aware of the fact that if we can get it right in a way that those people notice, then it’s possible that something about the authenticity of that will land for people who just instinctively understand it. Because a lot of that stuff, you know, we go through our lives whether we’re aware of it or not. And in a way, at the beginning, you’re at a disadvantage if you are, “Okay, I can read people. I am now going to pay attention.” In a way, that takes you out of the thing we do as human beings, which is absorb information, process and synthesize that information, and come out with our own behavior. Right?

And so we can get better at that through conscious work, for sure. But we all do it to varying degrees of excellence or non-excellence. And I do think we’ve always been interested in it. As a human, when you start to realize that verbal exchange… Now, it’s great we talk about verbal exchange. When you start to realize that people don’t always… A, they don’t always know what they mean. B, they don’t always say what they mean. Sometimes, they say something close to what they mean, but really what they’re doing is saying something because there’s an end they want to get to. And when you start to realize that there’s information and there’s disinformation, I think it’s useful– or we realize at a certain point– it’s useful to try to open yourself up to be able to apprehend what’s really going on.

Our work features that because we like to write about characters smarter than we are, more attuned than we are, and those kinds of people have the ability to recognize these micro-moments. And I would say, as you are without doubt, David and I are people who read Mike Caro’s work super closely 30 years ago. And “The Book of Tells” began a conversation for us. I mean, really, it began watching the con artist movies and reading about cons, and reading about lying and the way people can catch liars. But then Mike Caro codified in an earlier way or a way that maybe hasn’t been as tested or scientific at the time, but there are certain foundational things Caro talks about. Like first divine, whether somebody is trying… Somebody is aware of the fact that they might be able to reveal themselves. Okay, if they know that, do they think you’re the kind of person who would know people reveal themselves? Okay, do they think you’re watching closely? If they do think you’re watching closely, are they going to try to give you a false signal? And all that stuff when we were young was so fascinating.

Also, the questions that it raises, the work raises these amazing questions. Because I can distinctly remember the first window of time I was playing in high stakes for me no limit games. And there’s this one hand that’s haunted me because the person who I was in a hand with was a really dramatic, very high, strong, dude. He wasn’t intentionally trying to use stuff in “Book of Tells” to throw me off. And he made a giant bet and did a very dramatic look in my eyes. And I knew from Caro that he was bluffing, but I hadn’t yet internalized it. So I knew. And it was this terrible moment for me because– and I’m sure you’ve had this in the beginning of figuring all this stuff out– it was like being a sociologist in a way, but not being able to master myself. Because he makes an all-in bet, my ego is on the line, it’s late at night, it’s way before Rounders, and it’s just the beginning of figuring all this stuff out. And he puts me all in. Back then we’d say tap, you know? He taps me and I look, and he does this dramatic like almost puts his face right in front of mine. And I know, fuck, the book says you’ve got to call, he’s bluffing. But I couldn’t do it. I couldn’t do it. And I folded and he showed the bluff. And it was this amazing moment of, “No, you got to actually do the work now to internalize it to incorporate it. You have to play this out if you’re going to engage with this stuff.”

It’s one of those things. You say this, and when you talk about the verbal tells, Zachary, in one of your books, most of the time you come up empty. It’s a lot of trawling and there’s nothing there. That’s also important to recognize, the other side of it. Right? Not to fool yourself into believing that you’re hearing or seeing something that’s not there. Or you’re picking up on a subtle piece, but you know what? I don’t actually have certainty here. Maybe it now takes me from 54% to 55%. That’s not enough to really shift my behavior. I’m an amateur, but I find it incredibly fascinating and compelling. It certainly makes sitting in a meeting or in a poker game that much more compelling, right? That’s why it finds its way into the work, I think.

Zach: Now, was that interest in… I think it does get to the crux of drama some of these. You’re talking about the Caro things of somebody implies they’re strong and they’ll be more likely to be weak, or somebody implies they’re weak and they’re more likely to be strong. It is such a crux of fictional drama of people giving false signals about what they want to other people. And I was curious: which came first, if it’s possible to say? Was it that aspect of poker, like deceiving other people? Did that really interest you from a fundamental narrative and drama perspective? Was that part of what drew you toward it?

Brian: One of the things is like, who can find their way to the truth? I would say it’s not about the deception. It’s not as much about the deception, it’s about who is able to see clearly. Who’s the hero who can see clearly what’s going on in the world? Because don’t we want to be… You know, we all want to think, as human beings, that we can walk into a room and understand the dynamics. But if you put three people in a room, there’s no way you can understand the dynamics. This is not a political statement, but Barack Obama– as a human, forget him politically. I’m a huge Barack Obama fan but that doesn’t matter. The point is you get the sense that there are certain people who their intellect and their life experience made them have to use their intellect in a way that they learned how to decipher systems and systems of human interaction and behavior so that they could harness it in a way. Yeah, I’ve been fascinated by this for my whole… Not my whole life, but for a long time. Look, I grew up in a house where my dad had poker chips and he gambled too much on sports, and conversations about whether one could really have an edge were conversations that certainly happened. But I have a question for you, which is, what’s the extent of your ability to turn it off? Someone who spent so much time studying the way humans revealed themselves, the ways they try to resist revealing themselves, the way they use themselves for advantage or not, I just would imagine that a lot of interactions that you have become kind of freighted with this knowledge you pick up, whether you want to or not, or is it, “Okay, I’m tuning in, or I’m not tuning in.” How does that function for you?

Zach: Yeah. I think for one, I’d say that I’m quite humble about real world applications of these things. There are certain things I will get clues from, but a lot of times there’s a lot of noise in real-world things where it’s hard to say, “Oh, did they say it for this reason, this reason, this reason?” And I’ve written about that, too, of there’s a lot of these so-called behavior experts who will spout off confidently about like, “Oh, what does it mean when they said such and such or did such and such in an interrogation or interview setting?” But I think in a lot of those cases, there can be a lot of noise and a lot of ambiguity. But I do pick up good clues, and I’ve actually thought about writing a book or something about little clues and workplace or colleague intercommunications. Because I do see a good amount of that kind of stuff interpersonally and professionally and stuff. But I think the times that you’re certain about that stuff are few and far between. And oftentimes, it’s like poker too where it’s kind of just supporting something you already guessed or there wouldn’t be that much amazing insight behind it anyway. But I do think the verbal stuff is really powerful. I like to tell people, if you’re really interested in understanding behavior and getting information out of reading stuff like Mark McClish’s book, “I Know You’re Lying”, which is about interpreting verbal statements, hidden meanings in verbal and written statements, that stuff’s just much more powerful than trying to use nonverbal physical behavior.

A quick note here that I have a previous episode, one of the most popular ones, where I interview Mark McClish about searching for hidden meanings and statements. Back to the talk.

But yeah, it’s also just something too where, like, I’m not going to… It’s kind of a politeness to… It wears you out also to think about it too much, too. There’s a few reasons why you just may not be always on and thinking about at full bore or such.

Brian: Yeah, because people lie so much. And if you go through life constantly looking— sometimes they’re lying because they think it’s the kinder thing to do. Sometimes they’re lying because they can’t bring themselves to have to face whatever it is. And I just imagine if you’re someone who’s studied this the way you have, it might be at times. This gets to what you’re inching away. Like when you’re a writer of the kind that I am, I’m always trying to look through other people’s eyes. I’m always trying to empathize through their point of view. So, I’m thinking about if I had the skill set that you had, your hard-won skill set, I’m thinking about what it must be like. It’s like the way I’ve studied con artists, I can sometimes see things coming. It’s also like, people, I think, often we as humans, don’t want to necessarily… Let’s say you can divine… You know, someone you like says, “Hey, I have a special invitation, I want to give you something,” you want to believe it’s a special invitation. You don’t want to believe that they’re bringing you there because it’s going to serve them or their need. It’s easier to just think, “Oh, isn’t that sweet?”

Zach: Right, you don’t want to know. You don’t want to delve too deep.

Brian: Yeah. You want to go like, “Oh, it’s sweet that they thought of me,” instead of going like, “Ugh, special invitation, I know what that means.” You know? It’s easier to just kind of flow through. Right? So character-wise, people who are going to be vigilant with themselves and say, “No, you know what? I’m going to do the hard work of that kind of vigilance because the enterprise needs that,” and then they get certainty too. Because you’re 100% right, and often, the information is faulty. Someone could say three McClish buzzwords, and actually not be fucking lying. The good player knows to take a step back and look at the… I heard those words, what that should do is awaken you. That should awaken you. Now, take a look. Now, put all the other elements together. As opposed to just going, “Oh, that guy’s full of.”

Zach: Like in real life, too, you have to weigh the risks, the dangers of being wrong, right? Even if I think this might make it more likely, for example, if I think somebody said something in real life non-poker situation and made me think that they’re not telling the truth, there could be major downsides to accusing someone of lying, right? So you have to think about what is the actual usefulness, even if you suspect it may be true. These kinds of things. Yeah.

Brian: Yeah, I was going to… It’s funny, we’re not doing this on video, but I happen to be wearing a very old– I bet you this is a 17-year-old, and it looks all beat up, really old, Full Tilt Poker hat. If we were on video, I was going to say to you like, “It’s a perfect kind of thing.” Because what is it? It could have no meaning wearing that hat to someone who’s in the world of poker. It could mean I don’t really know the significance of what they did and who got hurt. It could mean I’m telling you I don’t give a fuck about… I was going to say it’s like one of those things where, “Or it could literally just be I grabbed the hat that’s been in my closet, and I didn’t look at that and I put on my head.” It could signal a lot of different… Wearing that hat, to somebody… Basically, wearing this hat in the world to the gym is meaningless. But wearing the hat talking to someone in the world of poker is meaningful, or could be meaningful. And I was going to ask you about it. So, the answer is I’m fascinated by this shit and that’s why I write about it. Because semiotics are fascinating, man. Especially figuring out what the semiotic signal is, and who’s aware of iconography and who’s not aware of it, and all sorts of ways. You know?

Zach: I think it gets back to something you said about its good to be a bit humble and not be overconfident in these things. Because, like we said, there can be so many meanings. So I think in the real world context, there’s a real value to sitting back and being like, “Well, I’m not going to reach any confident conclusions without good reason.” Because yeah, there just can be so much noise in these things and it can make you a bit neurotic to start thinking like, “Oh, I’m going to definitely be a Sherlock Holmes and pull out all these minute conclusions about things that I could convince myself are right but they’re wrong.

Brian: Yeah. I was reading something the other day where someone said– someone I like, someone I respect wrote a post about how to tell if you’re not in a good game, basically. How do you know if you may be sitting with people? And I thought it was really great. They said just because they’re wearing a hoodie and glasses doesn’t necessarily mean—

Zach: They’re a pro.

Brian: It could mean they’ve just watched TV. But then one of the other things was the way they handled chips. And I’m not sure. Because a lot of people play now enough poker that they know how to handle chips.

Zach: Right, they can rifle them and such. Yeah.

Brian: You know? I mean, I could do a lot with chips. I can really rifle them… If you sat with me to poker play, you would know I’ve played thousands of hours of poker. But I don’t know that that would tell you that I’m a winning poker player, or what level winning poker player. Maybe it would just make you pay a little bit of attention to me. What would it tell you, though, if you sat at a table– cause I want to know– and some dude or woman was wearing what was very clearly a really weather-beaten beat-up Full Tilt Poker hat? Would you imagine? Would you sort of ascribe anything to it?

Zach: It’s getting back to some of the things we talked about, like you said, there could be multiple interpretations. I think the thing I would jump to immediately is they’ve probably been playing for a while, no matter what that tells you. They could have got it at a thrift store, sure, but it’s probable that they’ve been playing for a while. But again, like you’re saying, does that mean they’re good? Or maybe they just lost a bunch of money on Full Tilt back in the day and they’re still bad? I don’t know. Yeah, it’s hard to reach a conclusion sometimes.

Brian: Yeah. But also, you might be able to. There might be information in that.

Zach: True. True.

Brian: I don’t know. That’s why I find all this stuff incredible. And House of Games– I don’t want to downplay it– House of Games– you know, the ring and the fact that the ring was a fake, you know? The whole first sequence there. And anyone listening to this should watch that movie, David Mamet’s House of Games. And even though the poker is kind of bullshitty intentionally or whatever, the way that they talk about that stuff. I think I saw that movie in college and i was like, “Oh, this is important.” Because I was already playing so much poker and I was already so interested, but I for sure hadn’t found “Book of Tells” yet. I found “Book of Tells” a couple years later. I found [Doyle’s] book maybe right after that had some stuff about how to read people. It was more of a mythical thing. And I’m 57 years old, so back then when I was in college, I think most people would assume if someone looked you in the eyes that you had a hand. Of course, now it’s all changed. You really still have to figure out if the person’s been trained. If they’ve read. It still works, by the way. That one, Caro’s one thing, which was just often people will look away if they had a hand and look at you if they’re bluffing. If they’re not intentionally showing you that, if they’re not educated, or if they don’t know, that does… Ever since that moment when I was young, I can’t tell you the number of times that’s paid off for me. Once you can figure out if the person’s doing it how many steps away from the idiot they think you are, basically.

Zach: A quick note here. I didn’t want to get too in the weeds on this during the talk and interrupt Brian and I’s discussion. But I did want to mention that I do think eye contact after betting is a pretty complex area of behavior more complex than what Mike Caro wrote about. I actually think the reverse pattern is more common. Someone making a big bet, who’s willing to stare at you and make eye contact with you is more tied to relaxation and a strong hand than it is to bluffing. But there can, of course, be different patterns and it’s also possible that the pattern Mike Caro talked about– the opposite pattern of staring at people when bluffing– may be more common in certain player pools or maybe more common to the past. The most complete description of what I think about eye contact can be found in my final Poker Tells book, “Exploiting Poker Tells” Okay, back to the talk.

Zach: I was curious. I was reading something about your decision how you decided to work on Rounders. And maybe the article was wrong because it made it sound like you didn’t actually know that much about poker or hadn’t played that much before then and you just thought that maybe poker would make a really good subject.

Brian: Yeah, it’s 180 degrees wrong.

Zach: Okay. Yeah, that’s not surprising. I read so many wrong things online. So based on what you were just saying, I was like, well, that’s got to be wrong. Because it sounds like you were pretty familiar with poker when you decided to write Rounders.

Brian: I’ve written about this before, but when I was eight years old, I was at sleepaway camp. And there’s this word, it doesn’t mean what it sounds like, this word canteen. But it doesn’t mean a canteen you drink out of. Canteen is where you could buy things like candy and stuff. And then your parents would give you money that was your canteen money for the whole summer. I don’t know. Was it $12 or $9? Whatever it was back then. $20. But you had access to that money, but it was for this one purpose and it would be kept in an envelope in this bunk that I was in at camp. A bunch of these dudes played poker with my dad because he had these chips in the house. He had a carousel of chips in the house but he didn’t play poker much back then. More sports betting. But these bunkmates of mine knew how to play and we played and I got cleaned out. I lost my whole canteen money, gone. And it upset me so much that I was like, “I gotta learn what the fuck this game is.” And so I pursued poker a lot and in various ways over a long period. It was in my 20s when… In college, my senior year, every day we ended up playing a lot of hearts. That’s why Hearts got in “Rounders” in that one scene in the jail. But we were playing a lot of hearts, and also poker. And I learned really valuable lessons because this one friend of mine was better. And we played gin a lot but then I went and read some gin books. And when I got better, he stopped playing against me. And I was like, “Oh, that’s amazing. I don’t have that discipline.” You know? He was really good gambler and he was just like, “Oh, Koppelman got better than me at gin, so that’s an activity we’re not doing.” I would not have had that capacity at all back then. I did not have that kind of self-control as a 19-year-old. Not nearly, you know? This is the way the story got completed, I think. I loved poker, and I was in the record business and I got married young and I married the right person. So, a certain kind of activity, if I was on a business trip, was off-limits for me and happily off-limits. But still, there was time. And I found the bike and I found [commers] and I just started going to those places when I was 26 years old, 25, 24. I was in those places all the time. And it was amazing that that existed. David and I had not yet started… So when I was in [commers] and the bike, everytime I was in LA, I would go play. That’s when I started reading poker books.

Then a friend of mine, in the end of 1995– I know the date, December 15th, 1995– I was with a friend and I was telling him how much I love playing poker in LA. I was back in New York. And a guy I work with said, “Well, you know there are these underground clubs in New York.” And I said, “I’ve always heard about it and wanted to go, but I have no contacts or connections so I don’t know.” And he said, “There’s this guy who tangentially is in our business too, but really, he helps manage the Mayfair Club– which is this club on 24th Street– and I can get you in.” That was at a lunch on that day and that night I went. And this part, which is the part that you heard, I go to the Mayfair but not as a screenwriter, I go to the Mayfair because I can’t believe that this exists. I sit down with this guy, Joe Bagels. And the first night, I started first. And the way they spoke, I lost all the money I had. I maxed out my ATM card, like $700 or something. I don’t remember. I brought 400 bucks and then I lost another 350 bucks at the time. I wasn’t going to take credit from them. I wasn’t going to whatever. And I did leave there and call David. By then we’d been talking about trying to find something to write, and I did leave there and say, “I know what the movie we’re going to write.” Because we were already going to write about these two kids. We already had Worm. Worm’s based on a guy I went to college with. They were going to be gamblers of some sort. We already had the scene where the Mike character’s name who’s Matt then goes and finds Worm in a gym because I used to go to the gym in the middle of the night and break in to shoot baskets to clear my head. And that was something we’d always thought about. So we had this idea. But when I went to the poker club, that was when I and Dave were like, “Well, okay, but now we got to really dive in. Who are the characters? What do they want?” That’s when the process started.

Zach: Yes, I wanted to talk a little bit about this blog post I wrote 10-plus years ago about tells in “Rounders” and I’ll just describe it a little bit for people listening. So, everyone knows about the Oreo cookie tell in Rounders; Teddy KGB opening the Oreos indicating he has a strong hand. But there were some other behaviors in “Rounders” that were common tells that weren’t at the center of the plot. In this blog post of mine, I talked about examples of what I’ve referred to as disclaimers, which I later called missdirections in my book, “Verbal Poker Tells”. Basically, these were verbal statements that misdirect attention away from someone’s true reason for doing something. For example, at one point, the main character Mike says, “Yeah, I’m going to go all in because I don’t think you got the spades.” He’s implying he’s going all in mainly because he thinks KGB did not make the flush when actually Mike’s got a very strong hand so he’s misdirecting attention away from the real reason for him going all in. Another way to think about this is that it’s basically Mike Caro’s weak means strong, strong means weak patterns. I don’t know if we mentioned that yet. Mike Caro’s book makes a cameo in “Rounders”. I want to throw that in there too. There were a few more instances of that kind of misdirection in “Rounders”. One thing I was curious about when I wrote that blog post was if you were kind of aware of that at the time and just thought that we need to obviously have them talk in entertaining dramatic ways with each other, you know, to hell with whether that’s common and people might perceive that as a poker tell. Or was it maybe something you thought about afterwards and you’re like, “Oh, that’s actually something that is a common poker tell that happens a lot.” Would you care to share your thoughts on all that?

Brian: Well, I would say, if you go back one step further, why did Mike write about that? Why is that a thing that exists? It’s because it’s the thing people do. Not now. Not in 2024. But in a pre-internet world, people behaved. They just behaved how they behaved. They spoke how they spoke. They tried to gain advantage when they could gain advantage in those settings. And saying something like, “I don’t think you got spades,” as you know, it depends on how many [yardley]. Right? It depends on how many steps away from the idiot I think you are. So he could be trying to communicate to Teddy KGB, it doesn’t matter what you have, man. You could have the flush, I still can beat you because I have a full house. It could be a very sophisticated bluff. That can be a bluff if you know the other person is hip to what you might be doing. Right? Look, the the idea… We had read… I will say, at the time, I was talking to the person who owned the Gamblers bookshop in Vegas all the time and I was reading. I have this collection of books which I’m staring at it now. It’s a giant collection of poker books stuff, many of which are from back men. And so yeah, we were reading all that stuff and figuring out the ways people talked. Also, we were in the Mayfair Club and the Diamond Club and the VFW hall, and writing down shit that people said and watching it. So yes, some of the dialogue is obviously torqued up. Nobody’s said three stacks of high society, not since 1911. But the idea of the ways in which people communicate, the ways in which people signal strength signal strength? I mean, yeah, we were conscious of that, but also conscious of the utility of seeming to signal that you’re revealing a tell when in fact, you’re doing something else. It’s just that Teddy had the one hand that it didn’t matter what the fuck Mike had. Because quads are under the table because Mike has one of each, right? So Teddy had the only hand better than Mike.

Zach: Again, I didn’t want to bother Brian about it during our talk, but I’ll just say that I do think the verbal statements in Rounders that I wrote about in my blog post show up like many standard and reliable common verbal poker tells you’ll find amongst a fairly mediocre player pool. Of course, anything is possible; as Brian says, experienced poker players might say such things in real life; I’m just talking about common patterns. And in this, some of the behaviors are just standard weak-means-strong behaviors – what I call weak-hand-statements in my book Verbal Poker Tells – weak-hand statements are players saying things that weaken their range in various ways, directly or indirectly. You actually don’t find even good players switching this up much —- this pattern for weak-hand statements is quite reliable; surprisingly reliable. 

And the degree of subtlety is a big factor here. When I say that the verbal tells in Rounders are good examples of commonly found verbal tells from bad players, what I mean is that the behaviors are fairly over-the-top and obvious. In the hand we were talking about, the Mike character acted stressed out and said “Time” like he needed more time to think, and then that’s when he said “I don’t think you have the spades” and went all in. Just quite over the top in terms of trying to act weak and uncertain when he had a strong hand. That’s what I was trying to communicate in my blog post; not that such behaviors couldn’t be found from very good players, or couldn’t be switched up, but just that the very unsubtle presentation of them made them seem like the behaviors you’d find from fairly inexperienced players.  

If you’re interested to learn more about why I think that, I’d recommend checking out my book Verbal Poker Tells. A lot of that book actually deals with the concept of weak-hand statements, and the different ways they show up. 

Actually, kind of funny, related to that, there’s a hand from the 2009 WSOP that Matt Damon where he does some very similar over the top behaviors —acting very stressed out and uncertain when he flops a full house. Matt Damon’s behavior in that hand basically, to me, gives away how inexperienced at poker he is – and it reminds me of his character’s behavior in Rounders. If that helps explain it a little better. In the blog post for this episode entry, I’ll include some links to these resources I’ve mentioned. 

Sorry to Brian for all this post-interview disagreement. I didn’t want to hold up our interview too much but I did want to dig into this a bit more because I thought poker players would find it interesting, and because I wanted to defend the ideas in my blog post a bit. Okay back to the talk.

Zach: So, I actually didn’t know how many interviews you have done for your podcast at the moment. I saw that you interviewed more than 400 people and you had so many interesting people in there. I was actually reading some reviews of your podcast people had written and somebody said that they thought that you were maybe one of the best interviewers in the country, just because of how you’ve gotten so many people to talk openly and be vulnerable about their life and these kinds of things. I’m curious, how do you feel about your skills as an interviewer? Have you seen them get a lot better over time since you started that endeavor?

Brian: Here’s a good thing to talk about. I would say I don’t spend that much time in general. I do when I’m weightlifting. But other than that, I spend a lot of time in general in tennis, I guess, or sports. But trying to fix myself at a point in a graph and sort of evaluate that, instead, I would rather say, “Okay, I feel like that interview wasn’t great. Why? I wasn’t curious enough about the person I was interviewing. Next time I should make sure that I’m only interviewing people about whom I have great curiosity. Because when I’m really curious, when I’m really fascinated, the interview is going to be great because it’s going to feel like a conversation and everyone’s going to hear that I can’t believe how lucky I am that I get to engage in this.” And it’s really outwardly directed. It’s really directed. It’s very inward, and then it’s like, “Does the notion of having this conversation fire me up in a way that it’s worth it to put in the work have to put in to do a great job?” That’s really what I’m thinking about. I mean, it really is. I’m just thinking about all the amount of work I have to do. Because I will not phone in an interview, I will not fake the funk. I’ll read the fucking books and I’ll listen to the thing and I’ll watch the thing. So I have to be fascinated by somebody either by their story, their work, the life that they’ve lived, or something they’ve said. And so I would say the most important thing is guest selection. The most important thing of being a good interviewer in a podcast scenario is guest selection. If you have the right guests for you, then the interviews will be great. If you don’t, it’s very hard, then you have to just… Look, in my whole life, I try to put myself in a position where I’m working from a place of curiosity and fascination. I said yes to this because I’m really fascinated by your work and the way you think. So I knew what does matter, I could be on either side of this conversation. It’s a conversation I want to have. I basically say no to some number, like 75% of the podcast requests and beyond podcasts. I mean, I mostly just saying no. Because I’ve gotten to— I didn’t. That wasn’t my policy 10 years ago, but I’m a little tucked down. So I would just rather not do it. I don’t need…

Zach: You need the spark.

Brian: I get very little out of this kind of thing except the engagement with the person I’m talking to.

Zach: To your point. I’ve had that learning, too, where I’ve said I’d interview people for my podcast, mainly they’d be nice. Or because I thought I was doing it for other people, those are the ones that always turn out the worst for me. Like you said, it’s like you’ve got to have that spark and really want to ask some specific questions. Yeah.

Brian: Yeah, totally. Right? You do! You have to feel… You have to feel an engagement. Of course, everyone’s been in a situation where they’ve done something to be kind. And by the way, that’s a really valid thing. But the product won’t be amazing and you got to say to yourself, “Well, sometimes that’s a balancing act.” But I don’t do it. I can’t. I got to a point where I would rather not do anything. I mean, I have to be engaged or it’s not worth it. It’s back to what I love about poker. When I sit at the poker table, I’m never bored. I’ve never been bored at a poker table.

Zach: Always something to watch and observe.

Brian: Yeah, and I don’t understand. I get it. I don’t understand. We all do it. But I’m not on my phone when I’m at the poker table. It’s the same thing. Honestly, in the last six or seven months I’ve become really crazily obsessed with lifting weights and learning about it and figuring it out. And I think one of the things is when you’re doing sets to failure, you truly are forced to be present. You’re engaged in something where you’re trying to improve and you have to bring everything to bear in that moment. You know? And poker done the right way, I think it’s the same thing. Yes, you’re having a conversation. Yes, you’re with your friends. Yes, it’s great. Yes, there are laughs. But can you say alert during that? Can you stay focused? Can you stay curious? Can you stay engaged? Can you keep listening? Can you pick something up? And as you state in your books, you might not pick up a sign for a whole night of poker. You could still win, by the way. You can still play well. And you might not really hear the thing that makes you make a certain move. Or you might even be in— Like, the moment you can really tell somebody has it or doesn’t have it, you might not even be in their fucking head. But you’ll learn it for next time. So, it’s not that different. Everything I do, I try to make it be something that I can have that level of engagement.

Zach: Are you going to write a “Rounders” for weightlifting? Is that a script idea?

Brian: It’s tough. There is actually one. There’s an angle on it. By the way, I mean, talk about subcultures. Dude, that’s a subculture that is so intense. The arguments that people in the world of lifting have with each other about literally… You could get guys calling each other the worst— Smart guys with PhDs calling each other the worst names ever about five to seven reps versus ten to twelve reps. Literally, you could have people devoting hours of podcasts to just downvoting somebody who thinks that a five-cent range is worse than a ten-cent range. It’s amazing. It’s like I had no idea of the words about that until I got into it, you know? No different than starting hand arguments or position arguments. It’s the same thing.

Zach: Do you mind if I ask you about transcendental meditation?

Brian: I’m totally happy. I love talking about it. Yep.

Zach: I know that you’re a big proponent of that and I was wondering, if you explained it to a lay audience, how would you pitch it? What are the benefits that you get from it?

Brian: Like Tim Ferriss says, I think he said something along these lines– I’m paraphrasing, I’m not quoting him– that it might be the thing that is most in common among the guests that he’s had on his show is that they do some form of meditation. I think I started meditating in 2011. And I want to say this succinctly. For me, the benefit is it reduced the physical manifestations of anxiety by something like 80% or 85%.

Zach: Wow.

Brian: One of the things is that when people want to sell stuff, they’ll say it makes your anxiety disappear. And we as human beings go, “Well, that’s bullshit.” Because nothing can. Because we’re humans and we know we’re mortal, so we have anxiety. But it just made the physical manifestations– the stomach or the heart– suddenly quickly. A month in, that stuff just went… The [line] just went way down on it. And that alone is enough. Then clarity of thought, peacefulness, sense of wellbeing. Look, I’m talking about lifting, but I’ve always been someone who exercises a lot. And part of why I started lifting and stuff is because as you get older, if you let yourself stay out of shape and you still play sports really hard, you can just hurt yourself all the time. And if you’re fat like I was, it’s just bad. So I had to start. Then you throw the cardio piece and you’re like, “Well, I got to do the other thing too.” So exercise has always been meditative, too, for me. I can get to that sort of alpha state that they call it, you know? Meditation is 20 minutes. The way I do it, Translated Meditation TM, there’s a book by David Lynch, the great filmmaker, the book is called “Catching the Big Fish” and he talks about it in a way that I find incredibly compelling. But essentially, you’re repeating a nonsense word to yourself quietly in your brain for 20 minutes twice a day. It’s very easy and it’s very calming. I just feel better doing it. I had a lot of questions going in. I had read all the sort of negative things about TM and I was very aware of it, I had very clear rules for myself about the ways in which I would engage. I would go take these lessons and then that’s the extent of my involvement. And it’s been, by the way, the extent. I’ve never gone on some retreat or thing. It’s just that I find this technique useful. And I’m just always after. It’s hard being a person, and so whatever makes being a person a little bit easier, I’ll take it. It goes back to the thing I said about mortality. We understand people are fragile, that means the people you love are fragile. And that stuff scary sometimes. So, anything that’ll help I’m interested in. Exercise is a huge one. Walking, not just as exercise, but walking is really helpful. Journaling is helpful, I think. And I think translated meditation, for me, is just very useful.

Zach: The form of the meditation, is it always the same? So, it’s 20 minutes of repeating the mantra and it doesn’t vary from that?

Brian: But the thing is, when you learn TM, it’s not rigid. You’re not forcing yourself to say this mantra over and over again. You’re allowing this mantra to surface and you’re kind of engaging with it. And then sometimes your thoughts come in. It’s like other meditation you’ve heard of. Your thoughts come in and then your thoughts move out and the mantra resurfaces. It’s just being in that space. And I’ll say I will not play. I do the morning meditation every single day in my life. I haven’t missed one since 2011. And I’d say I do the one in the afternoon 70% or 80% of the time, depends on the period. Right now I’m in a period of time where I’m doing it every day, but sometimes life makes it hard to the second one. But I will never play poker at night without doing this. Never. It’s a zero for me. Maybe I did it twice. And I just know. Like, I will meditate this afternoon before I go play poker tonight, for sure. And that will be useful. It will reset me in a way. It doesn’t mean I’m going to win, by the way. I could still lose.

Zach: And you said it’s something you say internally, you don’t say it out loud? Is that right?

Brian: Correct. You never say it out loud.

Zach: Is your mantra a secret? Or can you say what it is?

Brian: No, you don’t say what it is. And the reason is, you don’t want to attach anything to it. Really it’s a word sound noise. You don’t want to attach someone’s reaction. You don’t want to attach that moment. It really is just something to break the cycle of the pattern of thoughts.

Zach: You don’t want association.

Brian: No, you don’t want any. And no one knows it. In fact, because it’s like some state secret. It’s not special, it’s just because it keeps it pristine.

Zach: Do you have your own thoughts on what the mechanism is by how it helps you? Is it basically like… Because you said these other thoughts come in and you basically are able to kind of brush them aside, do you think it kind of sets you up to be more easily able to brush aside things?

Brian: Yeah, I don’t know. I was reading a book– this is not translated, this is a way to get to the answer– I was reading a book by Thich Nhat Hanh, he’s this amazing Buddhist. He had this phrase that he said he repeated to himself and he found it very useful. And I’ve done this not as TM, because it’s not TM, but I’ve done this sometimes to go to bed at night if I somehow am not able to fall asleep and my thoughts racing. He says, “I am not my body. I’m not even my mind.” By repeating that to himself, not out loud, it’s a reminder in a way that the thoughts you think aren’t necessarily valid. We all have thought things that we didn’t put into action or that turned out to be wrong, right? So just reminding yourself, yeah, you might feel a twinge in your knee, but you are not the twinge in your knee. It’s useful. Anything to create a tiny bit of separation from the thoughts that kind of own us most of the time and our essential nature, anyway that we can sort of separate those slightly, I think has tremendous benefit. And I think TM, though I don’t know, I really don’t know the answer to this, but what it feels like to me is that there’s probably a cycle of counterproductive thoughts that we all have. Who knows where they’re from? Who knows when we took them on? Whether they’re worries, fears, self-criticism, whatever the thing is, the mantra has a way of like if that thing is a circle that’s just going and going, maybe the mantra just kind of takes us somewhere else away from that and breaks it so that you have a minute to just have some peace.

Zach: Yeah, that makes sense. It’s like breaking the rumination or the ruts that we get into our normal—

Brian: Yeah, exactly right. Ruts. People should look at— I mean, there’s a lot of EEG studies and stuff, brainwave studies, and they’re doing more and more. There’s a lot of science now on this question. I was even reading recently… Recently, I put into two different AI engines a bunch of questions about meditation and the various forms, and about what the science said. And I was really prepared to be told that it’s all been debunked, but it just hasn’t been. The science really stands up for its benefits and you can just find that out. That’s just out there, people looking at the brainwaves and stuff.

Zach: Yeah. And like you said, there’s some understandable mechanisms by which you can see it helping you. And it’s now like some things you hear about you’re like, “That makes no sense.” You can see the logic there. Yeah. Well, it’s been great talking to you. It’s a big honor. I’ve always enjoyed your work, I always look forward to what you’re working on next. So, thanks a lot for talking to me.

Brian: Thank you. And as I said at the beginning, and I mean it, your work is valuable. I’m really glad that you’re doing it. I often wish you were just sitting next to me at a poker table so you could tell me what the fuck was going on, man, when I can’t figure it out for myself. [Zach chuckles]

Zach: Well, thanks, Brian.

Zach: All right, take care.

Zach: That was a talk with screenwriter, producer, and director, Brian Koppelman. Brian is also the host of the podcast The Moment. You can learn more about him at https://briankoppelman.com

If you’re a poker player and enjoyed this talk, you might like some other poker related talks I’ve done for this podcast; you can find a compilation of all the game and sports related episodes on my site PeopleWhoReadPeople.com  And if you want to learn more about my poker tells work, check out my site readingpokertells.com. 

Thanks for listening.

Categories
podcast

How a pro poker player reads tells, with Dara O’Kearney

A talk with professional poker player Dara O’Kearney on the subject of poker tells (aka, behavioral patterns in poker). Dara is the co-host of The Chip Race, one of the most popular poker podcasts, and the author of several books, including GTO Poker Simplified. We talk about: the importance of poker tells compared to strategy; how Dara’s views on tells have changed over time; some ways poker players can get info from opponents (e.g., insulting them or being nice to them); some poker hands where opponent behaviors played a role in a decision. 

This is a reshare of a 2021 episode. For more details about topics discussed, see the original post.

Episode details:

Categories
podcast

Tips on interrogating people for information and confessions, with David Zulawski

A talk with David Zulawski, who’s an expert in interrogation and interview techniques, the cofounder of Wicklander Zulawski and Associates, and the author of Practical Aspects of Interview and Interrogation.

Topics discussed include: Why is the non-confrontational, rapport-focused technique he recommends the best one? Why is it important to downplay the significance of a crime? Why is it important to try to prevent someone from denying the crime/accusation?  Why is it important to not tell a suspect all the evidence you have against them? What are some behavioral clues a suspect is lying or telling the truth?

Episode links:

This is a reshare of a 2018 talk. For more details about this talk and a transcript, see the original post.

Categories
podcast

Analyzing behavior and motivations in the Robbi Jade Lew poker hand, with Yakov Hirsch

This is a talk with professional poker player Yakov Hirsch about the well known high-stakes poker incident where amateur Robbi Jade Lew was accused of cheating by professional player Garrett Adelstein. We give our takes on the hand, and the overall situation, and we talk about Robbi’s possible motivations and thought processes during this hand, and also about our reads on what her behavior might indicate about her thinking.

This talk is only available on YouTube because of the references to visuals:

Related references:

Categories
podcast

Why anti-Trump people should have cognitive empathy for Trump and Trump voters

A talk about trying to understand Trump’s anger at the liberal-leaning news media and how that relates to American polarization. This is from a video talk I had with Yakov Hirsch (twitter.com/yakovhirsch) in November of 2023 (the first part of this talk is here). A transcript is below.

Other topics discussed include: Trump-Russia media coverage; Americans’ polarized views of Trump; the importance of trying to understand others’ views, even people we perceive as very wrong and dangerous; the importance of cognitive empathy; the seemingly widespread lack of empathy these days; and American polarization and conflict dynamics.

Episode links:

Resources related to or mentioned in this talk:

TRANSCRIPT

Zach Elwood: Hello, and welcome to the People Who Read People podcast. I’m Zachary Elwood. This is a podcast aimed at better understanding other people, and better understanding ourselves. You can learn more about it at peoplewhoreadpeople.com. What you’re watching now is a second part of a talk I had with Yakov Hirsch in late November of 2023. I separated that talk into three parts. The first one was focused on the Middle East conflict and anti-Semitism and I’ve already shared that episode. The one you’re watching now is about Trump and American polarization. In this talk, we mostly focus on Trump and his high animosity relationship with the media, and the divergent polarized views that Americans can have of Trump. 

If you’re listening to this on audio, just note that this was a talk Yakov and I had on video. So if you want to watch the video, head over to my YouTube channel. That will also help explain why it seems a bit more rough and informal than usual. I didn’t edit our talk as I usually do for the audio episodes. As you’ll see, Yakov is someone like myself who tries his best to get into the heads of other people to understand what the reasons are for their actions. He attempts to have empathy for them. And he’s committed to doing this even for people he very much disagrees with, or even for people he thinks are doing harm and are dangerous. This is a similar underlying thread in both Yakov and I’s work, the idea that you can try to understand the more rational and understandable and human reasons for people’s behaviors, even while thinking they’re very wrong. And I think for many people, there can be a perception that trying to reach those understandings and having an empathy is naivete and weakness, whereas I see doing such things as a great strength. When you try to do such things, you’ll be less likely to amplify a conflict and make it worse. And I think taking such approaches less obviously makes it more likely you’ll actually be able to achieve your own goals. 

This talk may be a challenging one for some people. There can be a feeling like you’re asking me to try to have empathy for Trump. He’s nuts and dangerous. And I get that, it’s a challenging thing for me too. I sometimes have those feelings, too. It’s like, am I being the sucker here. But I think there’s something very important in that difficulty. All around us, we can see how conflict grows worse by people giving up on understanding other people’s narratives and views. They write those people off, they see them as objects or as evil. People cease to care how their own actions and ways of speaking can help drive other people’s aggressive and divisive behaviors. For example, in this specific case, it’s important to see how aggressive and biased responses to Trump and Trump voters are a big part of what drives support for Trump. 

If we want things to get better, we must be willing to try to understand other people, even when that’s painful and challenging, and even when it makes us feel kind of gross inside. If you’d like to learn more about the American polarization problem, you might check out my book, “Defusing American Anger.” You can learn more about that at american-anger.com or you can sign up for my Substack newsletter about polarization. You can find that link linked to that on my site, also at american-anger.com. I also have an excerpt from my book “Defusing American Anger” on there that’s specifically about our distorted and polarized perceptions of Trump. You can find that in the book excerpts section on the site. Okay, here’s the talk with Yakov Hirsch. Note that this video starts out with Yakov and I in the middle of talking about the Middle East conflict, and that’s because this is the second part of the talk we had leading into us talking about Trump.

Yakov Hirsch: You have to think of Israel’s perspective because what happened to them is the most terrible thing that can happen to a country. If it happens to any other country, they would do the same thing as Israel. But here’s the issue. They are living every day with the story, whereas the rest of the world, they saw the story and most people said, “Oh my God, that’s so horrible.” But at some point, they are on to the new story. And the new story is every day innocents dying and Israel doing what they’re doing. Meanwhile, in Israel, when they look at their world, they say, “Didn’t you see what happened to us?” That’s what Bari Weiss said at some point. The people are celebrating Jewish death. Right? Anyone who’s demonstrating against the war is celebrating Jewish death. Because don’t you remember what happened to us? That you don’t empathize with what happened to us and the whole narrative that they have— their whole ideology— if you don’t agree that ideology is the real world, that makes you on the side of Hamas. Right? That’s our situation and everyone chooses to fight it differently. I mean, you have all these depolarization things, but look what you’re up against— people who have ideologies, and they’re saying it’s political science. They’re not saying this is my politics, they’re saying this is the truth about the world, and more evidence and more evidence and more evidence. Right?

Zach: Yeah, and maybe that’s a good point to segue because yeah, the more I’ve looked into the liberal academic work around the claims of high amounts of racism amongst conservatives and Trump voters, a lot of that work is just so weak to me. And I’m not the only person that says that. Musa al-Gharbi, an academic, wrote a great paper called “Race and the Race for the White House” that examined some of the really bad, and frankly, just kind of amazingly bad to me academic work that was used to take the worst possible framing of what this data says about what Conservatives and what Trump voters believe. And I was actually kind of astounded because those are the things that were used to then paint this picture. They were like the foundation of what journalists would point to or pundits would point to or Democrat politicians would point to build their case of like, this is the horrible White supremacist and bigots that we’re up against, you know? It was almost just taken as a fact in some very influential quarters that these things were true. But then you go look at the data that the things are built on and it’s just such bad academic work. For example, the book that got a lot of attention was “Strangers in Their Own Land” which was kind of the sociological examination of Louisiana Trump voters or Conservatives in general. But as Musa al-Gharbi pointed out in his work, people held this up as like saying a lot of significant things about Conservatives in general, whereas, actually, it was just examining a few people in the most deep red place in America, so, of course, you’re going to find the more extreme narratives there. And then, even within that, it seemed like the author, Hochschild– I think was the name– was taking the most pessimistic interpretations even within that framing just to say but these are the pieces of workbooks or academic work that are used to build this narrative that these people are basically evil, you know, in a similar way that I would say that happens in other conflicts or happens with Palestinians or… I don’t know if you have any thoughts on that.

Yakov: Yes. I mean, this is… Again, its ideology. This quote ‘academic’, it’s an ideology. Meaning that he has this idea and he could muster whatever evidence he wants and then he writes this thing. And the people with this ideology of Whites are racist, you just keep on accumulating to people who are receptive for whatever victimhood or whatever it is. For whatever reason that you’re receptive to this, you are masking this data. And everyone’s like, “Yeah, of course, it’s obvious already.” Right? It’s obvious. Now, think about the people who do the depolarization work. What do they do? They bring people and human beings together. Ideologies are about ideas. Ideology says, “You see those people? This is what they believe.” Depolarization is you put people together and they like, “Oh, you have twins too? Oh, my God, I have twins! What is—” It’s human beings, right? They’re not ideological. But these people are telling you, “No, everyone’s ideological. All the White people out there.” Each side is saying the other side is the one that’s ideological. But basically, everyone is less ideological than the people who are saying.

Zach: Right. Exactly.

Yakov: They’re the ones who are ideological, not the people they’re talking about.

Zach: Yeah, and what comes to mind there… I actually wanted to write a piece about the complex narratives that people on both sides of the American polarization, the complex pessimistic narratives that people build. For example, you have Christopher Rufo who wrote this book about the creeping malicious Marxism that was on the Left. He painted this portrait of “Oh, this stuff comes from these very bad people back in the day, and it’s all just this narrative that’s come forward into our time, you know? In the same way that some liberals do with the more pessimistic White supremacist framings. But Rufo and other people are building this narrative of those people that you see who have those beliefs on the college campuses, deep in their heart, they want to destroy tradition and they want to create this Marxist wonderland or whatever he says. I haven’t read his book but I just read the summaries, but it’s the same kind of trying to reach for this most pessimistic narrative about who these people on this other side is. And that’s just the nature of what conflict does to people. It makes us uncurious, it makes us unempathetic, and it makes us filter for the reality that we want to see about the other side. Yeah.

Yakov: Now think of Bernie Sanders when he ran in 2016. Bernie Sanders, this is very interesting, because Bernie Sanders is not ideological. Right? He doesn’t go with it giving speeches about this side. No. He’s saying, “All the people are in this together. Right? Your problem, you have nothing to do with this person across the country, but you’re both American and we should cut tack.” Whatever his solution is, he wasn’t ideological. And someone like him is the solution. Some magnetic politician. Because if you look at the people who tried to destroy Bernie Sanders, I’m not talking about… I’m talking to the idea people. The people who are the most ideological and need these ideological battles, right? This is how Conservatives got into MSNBC because they’re very good at waging ideological war. They wage. And if you look at those people, look at what they wrote about Bernie Sanders. The venom, the hatred, it’s because he’s not fighting the fight that they think needs to be fought. So these ideas are very, very important when you’re trying to make sense of politics.

Zach: You’ll now be hearing an ad. I don’t endorse these ads, and I encourage you to remain skeptical of all ads.

[ad plays]

Zach: Yeah. And interestingly from the depolarization angle too, a point I often bring up is a lot of liberals don’t know that Bernie Sanders was very anti-immigration for most of his career up until recently. He called illegal immigration like lax immigration laws a Koch brothers scheme because he thought that using cheap labor were ways that people with money got more money. And and a lot of liberals don’t know that, but I like to reference it as an argument to say well, you presumably don’t think Bernie Sanders is racist for his… You know, he has a very liberal background for his stances on immigration. And I’d like to make that point to say, well, if you can see how that doesn’t require racism to have those views, maybe you can be a little bit more empathetic to the Conservatives who have those views.

Yakov: Again, no hate. Think about that. Every politician. But Biden’s talking about hate. Hate, hate, hate. Every politician is hate! Bernie Sanders, no hate. Right?

Zach: I did really like him the more I’ve read about him and learned about him. Yeah, I like his approach and his way of disagreeing with people basically. So yeah, maybe we can switch to Trump himself. Because one of the things I wanted to talk to you about, the main thing was your thoughts, you know, basically having cognitive empathy for Trump even as– I’ll give the usual disclaimer– I think he’s a very narcissistic and dangerous person in his narcissism. And I thought that since I read an early book, “Trumped!” which is about his Atlantic City days written by a high-level casino executive that showcased Trump’s personality flaws being present way back in the ’80s and being responsible for his Atlantic City casino failures. But all that said, I think he’s very badly narcissistic. But I also agree with some of the things you and I have talked about, which was there are some really understandable reasons for why Trump behaved as he did, including having legitimate grievances with how the media treated him. Maybe you can talk a little bit about that.

Yakov: Yes. In February 2017, Trump gave a news conference, which I believe any historian who wants to really understand what happened here, if they were to watch that news conference, it would be eye-opening. Because in this news conference, Trump was totally authentic, was being himself, and if you’re able to get by the judging and if you’re able to look at Trump and be a political scientist, if you could imagine being Trump to really understand what’s happening, our journalists, their job should be to look at that and say, “Oh, this is what Trump thinks. This is what Trump feels about that. He got worked up when he was talking about that,” so people understand what’s going on in Trump’s head. But the audience that wasn’t, they don’t even think their job was that. Their job was to condemn and to say how awful he was, right? So, the whole media attitude towards Trump, whatever he is, we’re not judging. Right? Whatever. He could be the worst person in the world we’re trying to understand. So this news conference is so easy to see what Trump is saying. We’re getting his opinion. And when you listen to his opinion, and that’s when we both saw this, it was like Trump knows he’s nothing to Russia. You just look at him and it’s so obvious that he’s telling the quote, truth. Right? And we’ve all become so ideological that when you look at Trump, you can’t even… It’s just like, “Trump, I hate you!” You can’t even think of his perspective. But then you understand the whole world. If we can see that image, right?

Zach: I want to play a few minutes of that because you drawing attention to that, I honestly had not watched much long-form press conferences. Most of my awareness of that was in short forms, but you got me to watch most of this, which is like a pretty long thing. It was an hour and a half or something. And some of the things that stood out to me were, A, I’ve written about the bad and irresponsible press coverage of the Trump-Russia stuff. And people who are curious about that, I’ll put links in the description for this. But there’s many even progressive people that have written about the quite bad press coverage and the way politicians spoke as if it was like a certainty that Trump had colluded with Russia and these kinds of things. And Glenn Greenwald wrote a good article. No matter what you think of Glenn Greenwald, I’m not a big fan because I find him very polarizing, but he had written a really good examination of just really bad Trump-Russia mainstream press coverage. So you drew my attention to this press conference, which I agree was very interesting.

A quick note here, I was initially thinking of adding in some footage from the 2017 press conference that we were referencing here. Instead, I’m just going to include some links to that video in the entry for this episode on my site, peoplewhoreadpeople.com. I think Yakov is right in that that was one of the more interesting press conferences from Trump’s administration, and seeing how he talked about the Trump Russia coverage and understanding his relationship with the media. Okay, back to the talk.

The things that stood out to me were he was much more eloquent than I remember him being and I think part of that is, you know, my perception of that whole relationship him with the press or him with liberals in general was that he became increasingly both angry and mad, and I think, too, by the interaction. It was like a mutually rage-amplifying relationship, I felt like. Because, as you say, Matt Taibbi wrote a book, “Hate Inc”, which examined some of the liberal inclinations to push back on. They were like, “We’re not going to take this. We’ve got to be even more aggressive with our approach, you know? That was our failure or something.” But this kind of mutual radicalization, that struck me. Because, as you say, he struck me as… Even with some of the insults he would throw, he struck me as somebody trying to reach out to them and say, “Look, you’re being very unfair to me. If you did a better job, I would be your biggest fan.”

Yakov: He says let’s not fight. I just want to bring up one of the things we’re trying to… Think about what he said. He said Hillary got questions before one of the debates. Right? And he hit the press. “Can you imagine if I would have gotten questions before the debate?” If let’s say it turns out Trump got it and somehow some guy gave him the result, and think about how he sees the world, nothing happened. It wasn’t even a story. Right? So when he presents that, he doesn’t get an answer. And it’s true he’s right about it. So he keeps on making this argument to show that his view of the world is the accurate one. And it is. One of the things he said is accurate.

Zach: Yeah, it’s understandable. And I think it’s very important to see that.

Yakov: You can’t understand Trump. Sorry, you can’t understand Trump without understanding all the things he knows to be true. And now we have a very different Trump from the one that’s 2016. That’s a very big problem.

Zach: Right. He’s gone down this path, which I think to your point, it’s like you have to be willing to examine how he went down that path. It’s important to understand that too. And I think what the us-versus-them feelings or narratives do to us is like… I mean, you talk about this stuff to some liberal people and they just have no curiosity about any of that aspect. It’s just like, “We know he’s bad. The voters are dangerous, we know January 6th happened. We’re not curious about this interplay and the relationship of how these things play out.” And it’s really the lack of curiosity about the dynamics that gets me.

Yakov: So if we’re trying to understand truth, again, we would go to the Trump voters and we’d interview all of them. “What do you like how he’s on trial? What do you think of that?” And we would be able to come up with an explanation. These are the main reasons why Trump voters still like Trump. And what I believe is it would be very different from the people who are saying this is what they believe. And we have to– just from what we’re speaking about here– imagine those Trump voters who are watching that video which we both watched and they’re like, “Yeah, look, he’s making sense. He doesn’t… Look, it’s the media!” Everything Trump says is quote, true. And they’re not even responding. And as we both know, some Columbia journalism reviewed this big project, which was an ex-New York Times journalist who wrote the war against the war against Trump, which compiles all this misinformation. So this happened in the real world, and you didn’t have big discussions in magazines saying let’s talk about this. They ignored it. So what does this mean? The media is playing politics, but they’re claiming their political science. In other words, they’re talking to a Trump voter, “How could you vote for someone…” You know, these moral arguments. But no, you’re political. You have your own reasons. Whatever it is, you’re not objective. And they see that. So of course, it’s totally understandable to be like, “Yeah, I don’t care. Of course, I’m on Trump’s side in this fight.”

Zach: Yeah, exactly. I think that’s the really important thing. In conflict, such an important thing is understanding how so much of support for Trump or support for a leader in a conflict is about your anger at the other side. It’s not necessarily or not even often probably about really liking that person, it’s more like that person represents the fight against what you dislike on the other side. And the case of the pretty bad coverage and framings and punditry around Trump Russia stuff or Trump’s racism or his voters’ racism, all that stuff is sufficient to me to understand what bothers people. You can understand the animosity, to me, just based on those things, like examining those things and seeing why people are so angry. And for people curious about this, I will include, like a lot of resources, including resources by progressives or people that are not fans of Trump– like, they were very much scared of Trump, but who have examined these issues. But I think for a lot of people, that’s hard to… They don’t really want to see those things.

Yakov: Let me give you an example of the right way to cover Trump, the responsible way which should have been done in 2016. At some point, Trump said– I forgot what court case it was, but it was a Mexican judge. And he said that Mexican judge can’t be honest or something like that, he’s going to be biased. Now, if you want to make a case against Trump, if you want to make a case to the American people, you’d say, “Hey, don’t you understand that we can’t have a president who says this person is not fair because of the race?” Imagine everyone listening to him, they go to court, they don’t like the… It’s like, no, he believes that because of… So, no matter what we think of Trump, we cannot have a president who says this judge is not fair because he’s a Mexican. Right? That should be enough. Whatever the opposition is to this President, this is what… That eliminates—

Zach: There’s plenty of legitimate things to focus on without taking the worst possible interpretation of everything.

Yakov: It’s just making fun of ridiculing him. I mean, it’s just absurd what’s happening.

Zach: Or things like him telling Congress people born in this country to go back to their countries. That’s objectively bad. We don’t need to reach for all these other interpretations. Maybe I’ll just put in a video clip of the Trump conference later just so people can see a little bit of it. I don’t think we need to play it. But I’ll just play a little bit and if people are interested, I think they’ll watch more. So yeah, we can skip that. But let’s see, I’m going to get my notes here.

Yakov: I mean, think about what we’re facing, the challenge we’re facing. On the one side, the media or however you want to call them, Washington or whatever, I don’t know the right words, they see Trump is being put on trial, he’s the most popular, it looks like he’s going to be the nominee, right? And all of these people believe that this is the end of democracy, and therefore, their reporting and their takes on everything is it’s the end of democracy. And the other side Trump’s going to be taunting the media. “Haha, you know what I’m going to do when I become President? I’m going to put you all in jail. Haha.”

Zach: This just ramps up more and more. Yeah.

Yakov: So, like I said, they’re experiencing the world in different ways. And who’s supposed to be the responsible one? The media is supposed to be the responsible one. Instead, they’re more ideological than Trump. That’s the secret. In 2016, Trump didn’t come here white nationalist. He was not ideological. When you listen to him when he got to work, he really wanted to quote, “Make America great.” Right? He was proud. If you look at his interaction, think about every day he’d go to work, get things done, he’d go home, he’d go to his bedroom, he’d turn on CNN and be like, “No, that’s not what happened. That’s a lie.” Right? And he’d throw the remote at the TV.

Zach: Yeah. Speaking of worst-case interpretations, like the whole thing about interpreting ‘Make America Great Again’ slogan as an obviously racist slogan, yet when you look into that history, it’s like both Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton used it at least once in some of their campaigns. There’s examples of that. And it’s a very easy-to-understand slogan because most people would interpret it, or I think most Trump voters are interpreting it as like, “There was a time when we had many more jobs and the main streets weren’t decimated and small towns were decimated.” But to reach for this ultra-pessimistic interpretation of like, “Oh, they just want a time when White people had more control.” And that’s the very pessimistic—

Yakov: As soon as this became the approach to Trump in 2016 by the media, what we have now became inevitable. Inevitable. Because you have each side interpreting the weight differently, and it keeps adding up. And here we are. Right?

Zach: The very nature of conflict. Yeah. It ramps up insults, leads to insults, threats, perceived threats—

Yakov: That’s the thing. Each side becomes more ideological. They keep on collecting more things that they’re right about.

Zach: Right. Yeah, that’s what led to things like people writing as if the January 6th event was a White supremacist event. People would write about it as if it was clearly evidently just about a White supremacist overthrow of the government, when you can look at the pictures of the people there and there’s clearly a significant number of racial minority Trump voters, and all it takes to be at that event is a belief that the election is being stolen. And if the President is telling you the election is stolen, a lot of people are going to believe that. It doesn’t require any more—

Yakov: January 6th is a perfect example because it’s a fight about meaning. What does this event mean? And one side tells you what it means and they didn’t stop telling you what it means. Right? But I don’t think political science, if they were to interview every person and find out why you would want to hurt anyone, the report they’d come back with is very different from the report of the media. In fact, Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, he spoke to someone on that march, and what did this person tell him? What did he quote? He said this person said the worst White nationalist things imaginable. That’s the thing. These people, ideologues, this is to help their interpretation. So it’s a big problem to understand reality.

Zach: We live in a big country. That’s what I often emphasize. It’s like, you know we have 330 million people in this country, you can’t just pick out pieces of information and build a simplistic narrative in such a complex world, you know? Yeah. Okay. Getting back to one thing you and I talked about was both you and I had an early read in 2017 that the Trump Russia stuff wasn’t going to amount to stuff. And I didn’t go on record on that but it was something that was early in my mind and it was based on the fact that… It kind of relates to the poker tells stuff where one of the most reliable tells in poker is if somebody’s making a big bet and they’re just very relaxed and don’t have anything to and they’re just very effusive and are willing to talk about the hand and they’re willing to talk about what they have, those are all really good signs that they’re relaxed and are value betting. They’re not bluffing, right? In a similar way, not to say that this is a hundred percent or anything, but when I saw Trump talking about the Trump Russia stuff in such an effusive way and just went on for long stretches of time about it, even like him saying that thing of in 2016 before he was elected where he’s kind of kidding around things where he’s like, “Russia, if you have those Hillary Clinton emails…” I think he initially said, “Russia or China or anybody, if you have the emails, send them to me,” kind of in a mocking way. And then he later repeated, like, “Russia, if you have them, I’d like to get them.” That read to me like the other behaviors as this is not a guy who was trying to hide associations with Russia. Because even if you think Trump’s a lunatic, it just would be very unusual, in my opinion, for somebody to be completely relaxed talking about Russia. And including in the press conference that we were referencing earlier, he just seemed very genuine to me about talking about Russia talking about, “Hey, I have no involvement over there, I own no businesses blah, blah, blah.” When people would talk about, “Oh, this Trump Russia thing is going to expose so many things,” I was like, “I really don’t think that’s going to happen.” Sure, maybe I could be wrong. Obviously, these things aren’t foolproof, but that was my read of the situation.

Yakov: The question is, what is he… We’re curious about what is he thinking. What was he thinking when he said that? And if you just open your eyes, you see he’s thinking it. He’s making a joke. He’s ridiculing the whole thing. That’s all we need to know. You can’t have a take, “No, he’s sending messages.” No, you just look at him. For instance, I’ll give an example that the audience should understand. In an interrogation when police interrogate suspects, if you have 20 years of interrogation, and if a woman gets killed and you bring the husband there and you start asking the husband questions, if the husband acts a certain way when you ask him where he was that morning and starts going off, “At 20 minutes, I went there and stopped and it was 7-Eleven,” they know from experience, people who do that are 98.7% guilty. Because a normal person would be like, “Why… You think I did it?” All of that. So, think about that as a tell. If you’re paying attention, you’ll say no, this person wouldn’t do that if this was the case. So poker, when you’re sitting and playing hundreds of hours on you see the same thing over and over and over, you can’t help but say, oh, when someone does that, it means that.” Now, of course, you have to correct it. Anyhow…

Zach: Yeah, a great example that was, you know, these are all just anecdotal but the real power is in the patterns of them. But like Chris Watts, you know, he killed his wife and children and you watch that footage of him interacting with the cops and he’s just really cagey and doesn’t say much because he’s afraid of, you know, how can my words be interpreted? But somebody who isn’t afraid of being caught in anything, they’ll talk about anything. And people have disagreed with me about this. I had someone I know write to me and say, “But Trump’s a sociopath. He’s an extreme narcissist. You can’t take those normal things.” And I’m like, “I think you can, actually.” Because it wasn’t like… Maybe if Trump was already charged in a court of law or something and had nothing to lose, he would behave abnormally. But everybody has something to lose. That’s the nature of bluffing too. You have something to lose so it kind of exerts an influence to act in certain ways. So if Trump had been colluding with Russia, it’s pretty unlikely to me that he would be able to speak so freely about these things, because he had to be worrying about like, “Well, how are people going to interpret this? What are they going to find? What information are they going to find in how I word this?” But the fact that he just spoke so loosely and the fact that with him doing the thing about like, “Hey, Russia, if you have Hillary Clinton’s emails…” some people interpret that as if he’s making a message to them. Like, if you were colluding with Russia, you wouldn’t have to put it on live TV for everyone to see. That’d be the last thing you would want to do if you were colluding with Russia because you wouldn’t want to draw attention to the fact that you were colluding with Russia, right? You would do it with a back channel. To me, it was the complete opposite of what people were filtering it through their lens of how can I make this fit my view of Trump and my extremely negative view of Trump.

Yakov: Here’s the secret, Trump is transparent. Every other president you ever interviewed, you didn’t know what they were thinking. Basically, if you pay attention, Trump is transparent. Just look at him, and he tells you what’s going on.

Zach: Another example– and for people interested in this, I have a whole chapter in my book where I go through the extremely pessimistic interpretations of things that are top of people’s mind for the horrible things Trump has said like Mexicans rapists thing, or the other example was in one of the debates with Biden. He said something like… They were like, “What do you think of the Proud Boys?” And he was like, “Proud Boys stand by.” But to me, I spent a lot of time interpreting people’s language and I wrote a whole book on verbal poker tells. To me, that stood out as no, he was basically just trying to not give points to people who want to paint Proud Boys as a significant problem and he’s basically trying to say, “Proud Boys, let the police do their work.” He was basically trying to… The more important part of his statement was stand back or whatever and then he just said stand by, but people interpret that as if he was sending some military command to them. And I’m like that’s the most pessimistic way to interpret what happened, as if Trump is some great communicator that he planned ahead to send this secret message to these people, when we know he just speaks off the cuff and speaks really loosely.

Yakov: Think about what he said. “I am the least racist and anti-Semitic person in the world.” Right? So he said those things. Now, let’s imagine what did Trump mean when he said that. In his mind, there’s this African American who brings his car in a certain time, he gives him this amount of money for it. Basically, he doesn’t see someone and think negative thoughts because of their race. This is the same thing with Jews. He doesn’t think like that. So this is the way he says it. Like, “What are you talking about?” Right? And the responses, what do you mean that…

Zach: I won’t go that far. I think he—

Yakov: Listen, I said what he said about the Mexican.

Zach: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yakov: That’s the most racist thing in the world. I’m just saying to think what he… Of course, he’s not right. But when he says it, what does he mean? You have to understand is he just crazy? [inaudible]

Zach: I don’t want to defend him too much because I do think he is, in some sense, a bit crazy. Because you read this book “Trumped!” and it’s like he didn’t have any memory about things he would do because I think he’s just such a narcissist. And there was a valid thing in there about him making that statement about Black people being lazy, which I think was a valid thing. But to the point that we’re making, though, it’s like you can believe all those things and still think that a lot of stuff— [crosstalk]

Yakov: I have no idea whatever the evidence is about him, I have no idea how racist he is. I’m just saying—

Zach: Yeah, we’re more focused… The thing I focus on is the way people, no matter what they think of Trump, is the way they try to act as if like, “Well, clearly, Trump voters must see the horrible things that I see about him too.” That’s the other very bad conflict thing where people assume that because I think this person is horrible or whatever I think of them, then therefore, I can judge these people. Whereas those people have a completely different view of that person and just do not see the same world, you know?

Yakov: If you look at which journalists are popular, they are the ones who are condemning and judging and having a moral crusade, right? And your side, you love moral crusades. It’s very good to indict the other side. But that’s the end of the world, right? Because this is not what’s really happening, but every day, it’s like, “Oh, my—” Think about, just as an example, Republican politicians and how they should behave towards Trump. So, you have these journalists saying, “Oh, my God, this person. If he doesn’t do this, he has to…” You have to think about their perspective, even if they don’t like Trump and they’re forced and whatever, right? But there’s nothing like that.

Zach: Yeah, totally. That’s hugely important, too. It’s like people interpreting, you know, Republicans not speaking up in the worst possible ways. It’s like, “They must be fully on board with everything he’s saying,” or the worst possible interpretations. Whereas there’s much more mundane explanations in the same way you can imagine if there was a Democrat who was doing extreme things, Democrats wouldn’t want to talk about that because they wouldn’t want to give points to the other side and these kinds of things. And also, some Republicans are presumably waiting for the madness to die down and they don’t want to get involved in it, and maybe they’re like, “Some of this will go away, hopefully.” So that there’s more generous interpretations of it. Yeah.

Yakov: Right, because they’re about ideas. And they match up human behavior and say, “Oh, you see?” So when you think about people as people, you try to—

Zach: Figure them out. Yeah.

Yakov: Different story, right? This is going to be a problem.

Zach: Yeah, for sure. It’s getting worse. Seems like it’s getting worse on social media.

Yakov: I don’t know how we’re going to survive the next year.

Zach: Honestly, people think I’m very pessimistic, but I don’t think humanity will survive for a couple more decades or three. Because we’re going to have bigger and bigger weapons, it seems like all the countries are becoming more polarized. The polarization, to me, is the existential threat because we’re going to have people that can make manmade diseases in their basements and stuff, you know? This kind of stuff. So I just think people that act like this is some side problem, to me, it’s like this failure of empathy, and how we behave in conflicts is the main course to me.

Yakov: Because think about what the media is telling every US citizen. “Which side are you on?” This is what they’re presenting to every American. Whose side are you on? So, this has been presented. They’re not interested. They just want to bring home food for their family. “No, which side are you on? Are you going to vote for a president who did this?” This is a big problem.

Zach: That was the second part of a talk that I had with Yakov Hirsch in November of 2023. One thing I meant to talk about in this talk but didn’t get around to was something that I think is very important for understanding Trump’s personality and the way he behaves. Trump simply doesn’t want to do what other people want to tell him to do. If someone tells him you should do this or you must do this, he won’t want to do it. I think that personality trait alone helps account for so many of the interactions he’s had with the press and other people where people pressure him and he acts avoidant and stubborn. For people who’d like to understand Trump’s personality, I highly recommend the 1991 book, “Trumped!” which was written by John O’Donnell. It’s a very good book for understanding long-term personality aspects of Trump that go back to his Atlantic City casino days. For example, the book talks about his extremely poor memory, his narcissistic traits, his unreasonable fits of rage, his tendency to pit his underlings against each other to make them try to win his favor, and other things. It’s just a very good and well-written book, and it was written by one of Trump’s high-level casino executives. John O’Donnell said he wrote that book out of a desire to let other people know what Trump was really like.

This has been the People Who Read People podcast with me, Zachary Elwood. You can learn more about it at peoplewhoreadpeople.com. If you’d like to learn more about American polarization, check out my site american-dashanger.com, which includes information about my book and about my Substack newsletter. Thanks for listening.

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podcast

The overstatement of antisemitism, and the importance of understanding even our enemies, with Yakov Hirsch

A second talk with Yakov Hirsch, who writes about the Middle East conflict and about “Hasbara culture”: what he sees as the tendency of some Israel-defending people to be overly antagonistic and us-vs-them in their thinking (for example, unfairly framing criticism of Israel as “antisemitic”).

If you haven’t heard our first talk, I recommend listening to that first. The audio for this episode comes from a video talk Yakov and I had: that video is here. A transcript of this talk is below.

This talk is more generally about the nature of conflict, and about how conflict can make us perceive the world and the people around us in overly pessimistic and antagonistic ways, which in turn leads to more conflict. It’s also about the importance of trying to have cognitive empathy for people we disagree with and see the world from their perspective; even for people we may think are harmful and dangerous.  This will be followed by a second talk where Yakov and I talk about American polarization and our polarized views of Trump. 

Episode links:

Resources:

TRANSCRIPT

Disclaimer for these transcripts: they’re not perfect and will contain inaccuracies.

Zach Elwood: Hello and welcome to the People Who Read People podcast. I’m Zachary Elwood. This is a podcast aimed at better understanding other people, and better understanding ourselves. You can learn more about it at peoplewhoreadpeople.com.

In November of 2023 I talked to Yakov Hirsch about antisemitism and the Middle East conflict, and about trying to understand other people’s perspectives even when we greatly disagree with them. If you haven’t listened to that one, I recommend that one because it’s a more solid introduction to Yakov’s ideas; we talk about the Holocaust and about the “banality of evil” and more. This talk you’re watching now is more of a follow-up. 

Yakov is someone who writes about what he calls Hasbara Culture; what he sees as a tendency of some Jewish Israel-defending people to be overly us-vs-them and antagonistic in their thinking; one manifestation of this would be people being too quick to call people and ideas ‘antisemitic’ when they’re not actually antisemitic. For example, you will often hear people describe harsh criticism of Israel as antisemitic, even when that connection seems subjective and very debatable.

You can find various things online that Yakov has written about so-called Hasbara culture and other related topics by searching for his name; you can also follow him on Twitter at YakovHirsch; his name is spelled YAKOV HIRSCH. 

This episode you’re watching now is a second talk I had with Yakov. We return to some topics we touched on in the first talk. For any audio listeners, this was a talk recorded on video so if you want to watch it in video format, head over to my youtube channel. 

Also, during this talk Yakov and I got on the subject of American polarization and Trump. Also, because Yakov is a pro poker player, we talked about poker. So I’ve split this talk into three parts; the first one, the one you’re watching now, is about the Middle East conflict and antisemitism. The second one will be about Trump, Trump supporters, our divergent, polarized views on Trump, and the American divide. The third part will be us talking about the high stakes poker story of Robbi Jade Lew being accused of cheating. 

Okay here’s the talk with Yakov Hirsch.

Hi, Yakov, how’s it going?

Yakov Hirsch: Pretty good.

Zach: Thanks for joining me to talk more about some tough things to carry on the conversation we had earlier. Maybe we get started with… For things that were top of your mind, for things that we didn’t cover well or didn’t touch on in the first talk we had about Israel-Palestine aspects topics, what’s top of your mind there? Would you say?

Yakov: The most important take from that story is that there was a fight between politics and political science, and the politics beat the political science. And I’d like to explain what that means, and this will help us going forward. Whenever we talk about this idea of political science versus politics, it will help us navigate the issues we’re going to discuss.

Zach: Okay. Yeah, would you like to kick it off? Because I could get kick it off.

Yakov: Yeah, sure.

Zach: Okay.

Yakov: Okay. In the last podcast, I said that there was this fight between two historians in the 1990s and it was really important and complex business. But I’m going to sum it up like this. There was a historian, Christopher Browning, and a different historian, Goldhagen, and they had a fight about certain Germans. We all know that during World War Two during the Holocaust, when Germans killed the Jews, a lot of them were ideological. In other words, they grew up with the Nazis and they were just basically brainwashed to hate the Jews. So when they killed the Jews, it was like, “Yes, I’m killing Jews.” But this historian Browning discovered that some German soldiers were not like that. Some German soldiers killed the Jews because they didn’t want to look bad in front of the guy who was killing the Jews. Meaning it wasn’t really anti-Semitism that—

Zach: Peer pressure kinds of factors. Yeah.

Yakov: So, this other book, “Hitler’s Willing Executioners,” came along– this Goldhagen– and he said, “No, you’re wrong. All Germans, when they killed the Jews, they killed the Jews because they hated the Jews. It was this evil thing that was in their mind.” And not just normal, human… In other words, we can’t learn and it’s not universal. Whatever we saw about the Germans killing the Jews, Christopher Browning was saying, “Well, we could learn this for the next genocide, right? Look how people behave in this situation.” And Goldhagen said, “No, no, you’re wrong. There’s nothing universal about the story. We can’t learn about the German killing the Jew or anything about any other soldier anywhere else.” Right? And Browning said, “No, no, no, this is a human thing. In this situation, when you’re ordered to kill someone, you will kill that person even if you’re like’ I don’t feel like killing the person.” Right? So in this fight, the historians believed Browning and the public believed Goldhagen that there was something called the eliminationist anti-Semitism and the German had it. And the last podcast, I showed how this idea affected the world. But the bottom line is that the political scientist, which was the real historian, which was Browning, was defeated. So now—

Zach: In the public’s or in the mainstream or something. Yeah.

Yakov: Now I’m going to quote Hilberg. This is where we start. Hilberg was like the dean of Holocaust historians. He reviewed the fight and this is what he said at the end of the review. “Goldhagen wanted to describe what these men were thinking in the course of such actions.” And he says they were thinking about… They were evil! This is what he said. It was not factual evidence that convinced him for he had none. Goldhagen mentioned these words often in the 600 pages and avid others like unspeakable murderers, horrific, illogical, vitriolic, and gruesome. The adjectives are accusatory. They are taken from the domain of politics and not political science. By the end of 1996, it was clear that in sharp distinction from lay readers, much of the academic world had wiped Goldhagen off the map. Okay? So now, I’m going to explain to the viewer what does this mean. What’s the difference between politics and political science? I’m going to give you this example.

You see, on YouTube or wherever on TV, where a serial killer after they’re in prison for a few years, you have these experts come to interview the guy. Right? They come with the pads, they’re FBI, they’re learning to become FBI experts, they’re interviewing every serial killer and profiler, etc. You will notice that when they talk to the killer or to the serial killer, they’re very nice. Right? They’re not judging him, not saying, “How could you do what you did?” They’re like, “Do you want something to drink?” And they will ask them questions, “What did you feel like when you were doing this?” They really need to know the truth. Right?

Zach: They’re detectives. Yeah.

Yakov: Right, they’re really detectives and they need to know what they can get from this person, which will help the world understand what gets someone to be a serial killer. So it’s very important to be objective there, right? To not influence, not get angry at the person. You’re just going to be objective. You’re not going to judge this person as you’re writing your report. You’re not going to write in the middle, “I cannot believe that guy is such an animal.” Right? If someone were to start writing that in report, we’d be like, “Well, we can’t take this person… This person had a cousin that was killed by a serial killer or something. This researcher.” Right? So the political scientist is the one who’s really being objective

Zach: Or the psychologist. [crosstalk] Yeah.

Yakov: This is what Hilberg used. Right?

Zach: Contrasting it with politicians. Yeah, yeah.

Yakov: Right. So that’s the importance. And now I’m going to show you, in our world, examples. We’re going to talk about what’s going on today. I’m going to show you the examples where you have politics, which we should all believe, “yes, that’s quote, objective,” versus political science. Right? And if we’re able to identify when we’re looking at a situation what’s politics and what’s political science, it will help us understand the world. For instance, yesterday in The New York Review of Books, there—

Zach: Before you start the examples, I do want to say that since we’re kind of wrapping up the last episode, I think one of your points or one of the major points of that last episode or last talk was about how when you view people through a lens of they have this… You know, they kind of like are inhuman, they’re evil, they’re these kind of pathologies that are inexplicable and can’t be compared to other humans. When you when you do that, you create a wall of not really being interested in understanding what drives them. You’ve kind of put them in this class where you are more easily able to…

Yakov: It’s all about cognitive empathy. When you have the scientists, they are trying to imagine being the serial killer. They’re trying to get into a set and be that person and say, “Oh, so that’s what this is about.”

Zach: And it’s almost like when other people do bad things, it makes us less cognitively… You know, we’re less empathetic to them. But that can be a real problem if you’re, you know?

Yakov: We are judging, right? We’re always struggling. But there are people who are trying to understand and not judge. So I just want to give you this example of Hamas and then we can move on to whatever you want. Okay? So in The Atlantic, which is the most influential magazine, a writer there wrote an article about Hamas. Okay? And I’m going to read you the reaction of an opinion writer of the Washington Post, what he said about this article in The Atlantic about Hamas. He said, “My biggest critique is the assumption in Yair Rosenberg’s piece that evil acts are inherently irrational, and therefore, Hamas is best understood as an irrational actor. There’s no room for contingency, agency, or individuals in this account. ISIS was as sadistic as they come. But those of us who worked on ISIS spent a lot of time trying to understand the complexities of the group in a nuanced analytical way. It wasn’t enough to simply say that ISIS was evil and be done with it. That would be useless. It’s almost too obvious to state, so I feel a bit silly saying it but terrorism doesn’t just fall from the sky. Terrorism isn’t quote, not inevitable. There’s a whole body of academic research on what makes the resort to terrorist acts more or less likely. It makes me nervous when an article about Hamas doesn’t quote any experts on Hamas. There are researchers who have spent years studying basically everything Hamas said or done. Can you really write an article on the group without engaging [unintelligible 00:11:56]?” And he lists these other books. He said, “How would you write an article about Hamas without people who have spent their whole life trying to understand Hamas?” When we write serious articles, we take all these experts, and we… Yeah, Yair Rosenberg is not an expert on Hamas, but the point is that article wasn’t talking about Hamas. The article was too much evil. It was enough to say that Hamas is evil and this is the…

Yair Rosenberg is an expert on evil, so he wrote about evil. Whereas when you’re apolitical, you want to understand. In other words, you would like to interview every Hamas member to really understand what happened. Just like we did with the serial killer, you’d say, “Hey, how’d you get…?” You’d try to find out how I got here. Now, just one more, same with Hamas. This is Eric Levitz, New York Magazine. He wrote an article about Sam Harris who has the same view as Yair Rosenberg, and this is what he says. “Sam Harris says the Israel-Hamas war is a battle between “civilization and savagery” – and that Palestinian terrorism is motivated solely by radical Islam, not any earthly grievance. Which shows that atheists aren’t immune to fundamentalist thinking. Ironically, Harris’s own position resembles religious fanaticism in its willful incuriosity. On Israel-Palestine, the celebrated atheist refuses to test the dogmatic tenets of a Manichaen worldview against either the historical record or present-day evidence. Instead of challenging his audience to grapple with the complex origins of the present war, he serves them a fairy tale in which the forces of “civilization” struggle against evildoers, whose malevolence derives from no political history or context but merely from their demonic possession by the mind-virus of jihad. Okay?

And Robert Wright, one other time he also critiqued… There was a fight about the understanding of the American terrorist, and one side said he had ‘jihadi’ intent. Right? And Robert Wright responded. He said, “What does that mean?” He said we have to look at this person, we have to investigate, and you put all these together. That’s how you get to be a jihadi. Right? He said jihadi is like a bomb. It’s not one ingredient. It takes a whole bunch of things together, and that ends up with a jihadi. So this is an example of where you have experts. The arguments about the German was that he was evil. That argument now wins debates, right? If you use that evil argument, it defeats the people who say, “Let’s try to understand it better. Okay, this terrorist, what’s Hamas? Why did… Was there ever a time when they wanted peace with Israel?” All of that stuff.

Zach: Well, yeah. I listened to that Sam Harris, his recent one, where he basically was doing what you were describing where it was… I’m usually a fan of Sam Harris, I think he often goes into a lot of nuance, but on this, he did seem very simplistic because it seemed to just be making arguments like “Hamas does bad things, you know, much worse things on these levels like hiding behind their own people and these kinds of things. Therefore, you can’t compare them, and therefore, you must side with Israel.” That’s what his argument seemed to be. But it seemed to be like that’s a very simplistic framing because as you’re saying, it doesn’t get into the curiosity of why are they doing what they’re doing.

And even if you believe, Sam Harris makes a big thing of… He criticizes Islam, which I think there’s points there, too, but even that is like isn’t Islam also one of other factors too in the way these people behave? You know, it’s very simplistic to just say they’re driven by fundamentalist Islam, I’ll leave it at that.

Yakov: Sam Harris lives in the world of ideas and not people. Because according to Sam Harris, every Muslim has a little bit of ISIS in them. He says it all comes from the Koran, and the question with each Muslim is where are you in the continuum to ISIS? But that’s not the real world. The hate that he has contributed to, if you’re living on the street and the Muslims moved down your block and you’ve been listening to Sam Harris, you’d think to yourself, “Okay, where are they on the ISIS spectrum or on the jihadi spectrum?” And then when you see people reacting to Harris, they’re like, “You don’t know any Muslims. These are not real.” Right? So he thinks about ideas rather than human beings.

Zach: Well, it reminds me of some far-right people who would say very pessimistic things about Islam, about Muslims, but then you just look at the statistics of how many terrorist attacks are there really when you get down to it? Obviously, it’s a problem, it’s a big problem, but it’s also like there’s many Muslims living in America that don’t commit jihad or terrorist acts.

Yakov: Yeah, that’s why it’s so important to have cognitive empathy with the White racist. Because they, like Sam Harris, they again believe that this Muslim is sort of happy when they’re not real Americans.

Zach: Right, they’re cheering secretly or outwardly.

Yakov: The issue is if they were to somehow move into and they become neighbors with a Muslim in a few months, everything about the world will change because they’d see, “Oh, this person’s just like me! A normal person.” Right? They have these ideas which are not true about the world. So when you make arguments, it’s very important which argument you use against the racist for him to say, “Oh, I understand where I might be thinking wrong.” Rather than calling him racist things like okay, that’s what we do. You’re evil.

Zach: Yeah. And I will say, too, I think Sam Harris has also made some good points in that. People calling Sam Harris racist and such for that is wrong to me, too, because even if you disagree with him, he’s trying to make a point about a religion. Many people making points about negative aspects of Christianity aren’t called racist, you know? So just to throw in there that I do appreciate Sam Harris—a lot of what he says—but I do think on this thing, I was finding myself being like… I think he’s lighting over a lot of nuance there. Yeah.

Yakov: He’s saying because of political correctness, that we’re not telling the truth. He says, “All these professors, all these things they are saying, they’re only saying what they’re saying because they have to be politically correct.” So with one sentence, he wipes away all the experts.

Zach: Right, he’s erasing all of the nuance and—

Yakov: He’s erasing political science with statements like that. He’s erasing political science and we’re left with articles like that in The Atlantic. And—

Zach: Oh, yeah, I was going to move on to something related, but…

Yakov: No, and that’s why you end just for the present day, where you have experts saying that Israel is close to committing genocide. You have Holocaust experts in the New York Times. These people don’t go on TV, right? They do research. And now Omer Bartov, one of the great Holocaust historians, is going on every show that we’ll have him and he’s saying Israel is about to commit genocide or is committing genocide. And it’s ignored because ‘Oh, he must be a leftist. He must…’ That’s how if you ask The Atlantic, “Look, this guy…” “Oh, he must be pro…” You know, we don’t listen to experts anymore. Right?

Zach: Although from some people’s perspective, there’s a lot of anti-Israel and pro-Palestine bias in mainstream media. How do you see that? Because I know people who have some valid criticisms, like one of the recent ones with the New York Times rushing to the story about—

Yakov: I am not taking a stand. I’m not judging [inaudible]. I am stating the fact. I don’t have a position on any of these things, okay? [crosstalk] I’m not an expert. But I do know that Omer Bartov is an expert. And I do know that this guy, I’m trying to have cognitive empathy with this busy guy, and he’s stopping what he’s doing– an Israeli Jew– and he’s writing op-eds in the New York Times and going everywhere and he’s saying the Prime Minister of the country said these people are Amalek, are from the Bible. And he’s telling, basically, the civilians and Hamas are the same thing, and what’s happening is the genocide in front of us. So what I’m saying because of this mix-up, I don’t know if it’s genocide, but what I’m saying is The Atlantic doesn’t cover that because he—

Zach: Right, I get what you’re saying. I think that what both you and I are trying to do is trying to examine the understandable ways people can disagree and not try to paint people that have a different view than us as these monsters. I think that’s what you and I are both fighting about at a high level. Yeah.

Yakov: Can I share a tweet of a girl in a college, a Jewish girl in a college, and she had this march with other pro-Palestinian people? And she’s telling everybody…

Zach: Oh, yeah, that one.

Yakov: Right, so think about that. The difference between this Jewish girl who’s at some school march against the war or something like that, she said from the river to the sea. And in this tweet, she’s describing… When you listen to this person, it’s like she’s just trying to do good, there’s nothing that’s described above. She says, “Oh, my friends are so sensitive to me because I’m Jewish. They asked me if…” And it’s like, we have no problems here. Right? No one hates the Jews, everything is great.

Zach: It’s overstated. Yeah.

Yakov: You’re the people that’s creating all this hatred in the school by misinterpreting what’s going on.

Zach: That was an eloquent tweet. Yeah, I saw that one.

Yakov: Right. I just want to say that’s like us being the scientist into the surreal.

Zach: What the people are actually thinking. Yeah. Yeah, that corresponds to what I’m seeing. I see so many people speaking in the most pessimistic ways on both sides. It’s like they’ll interpret a statement feeling bad about Israel’s suffering or feeling bad about Palestinian suffering. People will interpret those in various worst-case scenarios. I see this playing out so many times and I see people interpreting pro-Palestinian marches as being for Hamas or being for terrorism. And as with a lot of conflict, the perceptions of how much maliciousness there are or there is seems very overstated compared to when you actually look at the things that are happening and what people are saying.

Yakov: It’s because the two sides have a different experience of the world. I just want to say this. When some of the pro-Palestines look at Hamas, in the back of their mind, do you know what they say? They say to themselves, “What do you expect?” Or something like that. And that’s why politicals they say yes, if you occupy a people at some point– which is what Israeli security officers say. So just that thought, the thought of– of course, the way Hamas behaved, we have to understand why they did what they did– but just the idea that if you occupy people… You know, like I say, all the security people told Netanyahu all these years there’s going to be an explosion, you can’t keep on doing this. Right. But if you even do that, that’s not good, because Hamas is evil. You can’t respond to the Hamas’s evil. And the whole world is seeing that babies is the problem, right? They see the babies and what are they told? “Hamas is evil.” And the next day, they see more babies and what are they told? “You know how evil Hamas is? And you’re sympathetic with evil.” So it’s two different experiences of the world and each side doesn’t understand the other side. And this might be a civil war before the Trump civil war next year for the election. Because it’s totally different and each side doesn’t even understand the way the other side experiences the world. Right? Just one last thing. For Israeli Jews, this really was! They’re talking about this like it wasn’t a holocaust. Meaning the IDF is now going into 1940 whatever and then fighting the Nazis. Right? This is the story. Right? And the other people are saying, “What do you mean we are killing the baby?” Whereas a lot of the leaders are saying it’s all, you know, they’re all the same. There’s no difference.

Zach: You shared a tweet yesterday, I think it was by Bari Weiss, where she was calling something Holocaust denial, which didn’t seem like Holocaust denial to me. But you draw attention to a lot of those kinds of things.

Yakov: Right. I mean, it’s the Jewish people with the most influence. I wrote an article, “Bari Weiss Wants to Speak For The Jews”. And to speak for the Jews, I just want to show you this book what political science is. It’s a book called “Victimhood Discourse in Contemporary Israel.” So, this is what social scientists do. They look at the discourse in all this holocaust talk and they analyze it. You have 10 different experts and they write them and analyze one aspect of the victimhood, and they try to make sense of how the holocaust, of our understanding of the holocaust, how we came to where we were, and how threatening it is. Right? That’s political science. So, what Bari Weiss does is not political science but the people who follow her believe that she’s saying political science. It’s very important. She’s not saying, “Oh, this is my opinion because I was brought up Jewish.” She’s like, “No, this is the truth!” And meanwhile, it’s just politics. So she takes innocent people, right? For instance, I just want to say this was The Harvard Crimson. They wrote this article at some point during the war. And at the end, possibly the writer was describing the cutting off the heads or whatever, something like that, and on the bottom it said, “This hasn’t been substantiated yet.” So imagine being the editor. You’ll have to produce these articles and you need to state the truth. That’s if you think about the human beings doing this stuff.

But Bari Weiss said, “No, this is…” She called it Holocaust denial in real-time. So when she says that she’s… All the people she’s talking to in the Jewish community, they are made to feel and they already feel that it is 1939 Germany– which is what I’ve been describing for however many years– that this is the success of this worldview, it’s only going to get worse. Because there will be terrorist attacks against Jews, unfortunately, because there are enough Muslims watching what’s happening. And Israel says, “We’re the Jewish state.” Every which way, they say, “We’re the Jewish state. We’re the Jewish state. Jews have to march for Israel, you don’t have to.” So when a Muslim– there are people out there as Sam Harris, how many jihadists are out there– or as Robert writes, how people might become jihadis, is at some point, someone’s going to see this. This is reality. I’m not saying that it has to happen. And they’re going to do an act of hopefully not whatever. And the interpretation of that event is not going to be that some Muslim is watching this killing and he just killed someone. Instead, Bari Weiss and what I call Hasbara culture is it’s the beginning of the end. That means the whole story about what that person did, that one terrorist attack, we can’t have cognitive empathy. This meaning of that act is now turned into something totally different. That totally different thing is the most influential force in politics. And that’s what I write about. That’s why each tweet is important because I’m saying, “Look at what’s happening. Think about the real world and think about the interpretation.”

And that’s why your real Holocaust scholar is going into the New York Review of Books and saying, “You cannot do this. Israel is a powerful state with the most modern weapons, and you’re talking about them as if it’s during the Warsaw Ghetto. You keep on telling Netanyahu…” Think about it. He told his people this is tribal war against our eternal enemies. Right? So Bari Weiss is cultivating to the most influential person in cultivating that that is the reality. That there is a holocaust again. Right? I’ve been very harsh on her. Some social scientists, which I quote, believe, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you believe it’s the Holocaust all the time, you can just tell me… Like I said, she is responsible for so much anti-Semitism by this behavior. Okay.

Zach: Yeah, I want to make some analogies there to the liberal-conservative conflict in America, but I’m going to come back to that because I see some… [crosstalk Conflict, no matter how it happens, has so many analogous things. And then there’s the asymmetry aspect of who’s perceived or who is more powerful and feeling more weak in a society like I would say conservatives do. They feel like they don’t have power is what allows them to do more aggressive things because they feel like they’re fighting this ultra-powerful force so that that allows them to be more okay with somebody like Trump who takes a more aggressive approach in the way they speak and these kinds of things or the way they act. A lot of people will like that analogy on both sides but I think there’s very much something to the perceived asymmetry of power and making you feel more okay with aggressive or doing horrible things, basically. But I want to come back to that. I do want to touch on something that I think we could have touched on more in our last talk, which I think is important because it’s something you’ve written about. It’s about how, and this is just a general aspect of conflict where people will take out pieces of bad behavior, you know, one-off or rare bad behaviors and hold them up as if they’re super meaningful, so that in the context of Israel-Palestine or antisemitism, that might be somebody taking a tweet and showcasing it and being like, “Look at this horrible anti-Semitic direct message that somebody sent me.” And people act as if that is significant, when the number of people who have those views can be very, very low and some of the messages can be sent by children or these kinds of things or just trolls looking to get reactions. Maybe you can talk a little bit about that.

Yakov: Okay, so there’s this word ‘ideology’ that’s thrown around. What does it mean to be ideological? To be ideological is you have a particular view of the world, which you feel strongly about, and when you see in the real-world proof or something that confirms this idea of this ideology, you say, “Oh, this!” Right? So you spend your life, you’re not thinking about your ideology, you don’t know you have an ideology, right? You think this is truth because this is your experience, right? And you keep on showing more evidence how right you see. You say, “I told you. I told you. I told you!” And the people who say I am speaking from political science, they have the most influence. If you can convince people that you’re speaking with authority, right? But these people, the only authority they have is because they’re saying. And they’re very good at making the case. They’re very good at making the case for their ideology. And the better case they make, the more people will be looking and say, “Yeah!” And if you’re at all susceptible to that idea, it’s like, “Oh, my God, you see, this person has the truth.” Because if you have a similar ideology, you’ll tell your friends, “Go listen to this person.” And they’re like, “Yeah, unbelievable.” Because they take examples you didn’t think of. Like, “Yeah, he’s right!” Because you’re not aware. Like, hold on, step back. What will they say? That’s what we have to have happen. That’s what we have to be political scientists. We have to say, “Hold on. Why do I think that this…” That’s why there’s such a danger to the world is because the stuff people believe that’s confirmed by all the social media that they get.

Zach: It’s the very nature of bias and conflict polarization. It’s just so easy to build a biased worldview because you just start building from the things that you see. And once you start looking at it in a huge, complex world, it’s pretty easy to pull out those things. I mean, I saw that with some of the narratives in America around the immense racism and hate crimes and such. Some of those stories I would see, and Wilfred Reilly wrote a whole book about a lot of the hoaxes there and how media often ran with credulous interpretations of some of these stories, and you would see… For example, you might see like, oh, there was a swastika drawn somewhere and people would act as if that was a significant symbol of something going on in that neighborhood. But clearly, that could be just a young kid trying their best to get a reaction from people, and the easiest way to get a reaction and cause drama is to put a swastika on something. So, these kinds of things where people would use those things to build a narrative about this deep anti-Semitism. But it’s like, is that really what’s happening? Are they… Who are those people?

Yakov: Hey, what you’re saying is a hundred percent true. Of course, these things… Now, if you were to write that in an article or on a podcast, there would be people reacting to that. Right. And therefore, you wouldn’t say it. Right? Because, “Hold on, you’re saying anti-Semitism doesn’t exist? Why are you even talking about this?” Right? Therefore, any reflection of the real world, if it’s a threat to a certain narrative– which is what I write about, this hasbara culture– the reaction is they don’t have cognitive empathy with you like, “Oh, it’s true what he’s saying.” They don’t look at the world. Right? Like, “Yeah, it is true. It doesn’t matter. One tweet? We don’t know what one tweet means.” Jeffrey Goldberg in 2016 of The Atlantic took a whole bunch of Nazi tweets, and this very influential article showed 15 examples, and he interpreted the meaning of each tweet. Meaning when you read it, you think the person who sent this tweet wants to kill Jews like this. Right? So each tweet, he made into an idea that this is the ideology of the person sending it. ‘That’s what it is. This is the ideology of the people sending the tweets. This tweet says so.’ I’m just as very ethnocentric to this behavior, but how… Just a second. [sips water] But that influence, when you are the editor-in-chief, when you put that into the world that every tweet means, then it’s over. I’m basically…

Zach: Well, there’s plenty of documented cases too. Yeah, reaching for confident assumptions about what people are thinking with all these one-off messages. I mean, there was a recent story about the Israel-Hamas thing where somebody found all these anti-Semitic messages on a message board of the college. I can’t remember which college. And people were also acting as if this had great significance. But to me, the things you don’t know are… That could literally be one person, that could be one asocial mentally unwell person, that could even be… You know, there’s cases of people faking hate crimes to get attention for a cause. So it’s like, you don’t know.

Yakov: Of course, this is the world we live in. We’re living in a moral panic. Okay? This is a moral panic. Just the bigger picture, there is a state, Israel… We’re stepping outside, right? If someone from another planet comes, what do they see? They see a state fighting with these other people, right? And they see people who are more loyal to one side, and the other side. Right. And the people who are on this side, when they see what Israel is doing, they’re going to experience it a certain way. So if everything is interpreted from your perspective or if there’s no other side, if there’s no other perspective but your perspective, don’t you realize how that makes me feel? That’s what Israel… You have to think of Israel’s perspective because what happened to them is a terrible thing that can happen to a country. And if it happens to any other country, they would do the same thing as Israel. But here’s the issue. They are living every day with the story based on the rest of the world. They saw the story and most people said, “Oh, my God, that’s so horrible.” But at some point, they’re on to the new story, and the new story is every day innocents dying and Israel doing what they’re doing. Meanwhile, in Israel, when they look at their world, they say, “Didn’t you see what happened to us?”

That’s what Bari Weiss said at some point. “These people are celebrating Jewish death. Anyone who’s demonstrating against the war is celebrating Jewish death. Because don’t you remember what happened to us? You don’t empathize with what happened to us.” And the whole narrative that they have—their whole ideology—if you don’t agree their ideology is the real world, that makes you on the side of Hamas. Right? That’s our situation and everyone chooses to fight it differently. I mean, you have all these depolarization things, right? But look what you’re up against. People who have ideologies and they’re saying it’s political science. They’re not saying this is my politics, they’re saying, “This is the truth about the world,” and more evidence and more evidence and more evidence.

Zach: Maybe that’s a good point to segue because, yeah, the more I’ve looked into the liberal academic work around the claims of high amounts of racism amongst conservatives and Trump voters, a lot of that work is just so weak to me. And I’m not the only person that says that. Musa al-Gharbi, an academic, wrote a great paper called “Race and the Race for the White House” that examined some of the really bad and amazingly bad, to me, academic work that was used to take the worst possible framing of what this data says about what conservatives and what Trump voters believe. And I was actually kind of astounded because those are the things that were used to then paint this picture. They were like the foundation of what journalists would point to, or pundits would point to, or Democrat politicians would point to to build their case of this is the horrible White supremacists and bigots that we’re up against. It was almost taken as a fact in some quarters and very influential quarters that these things were true. But then you go look at the data that the things are built on, and it’s just such bad academic work.

Zach Elwood: I’ll go ahead and cut that talk there. As I stated at the beginning, I’m going to release the second part of my talk with Yakov Hirsch later. That part of the talk focuses on American polarization and our polarized views of Trump. That will be out in a few days.

This has been the People Who Read People podcast with me, Zach Elwood. You can learn more about it at peoplewhoreadpeople.com. Thanks for watching.

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podcast

Studying pessimistic “need for chaos” views, with Kevin Arceneaux

A talk with Kevin Arceneaux, whose research found that a surprising number of people (around 40%) either agreed with or did not disagree with statements like “When I think about our political and social institutions, I cannot help thinking ‘just let them all burn’?” In their paper, they called this a “need for chaos.” We talk about what the study entailed, what they found, and what the factors might be that help explain the finding. We also talk about its relation to toxic polarization, and to social media. 

This is a reshare of a talk from 2021. For more details on this episode and a transcript, see the original episode post.

Episode links:

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podcast

Behavioral tells in football, baseball, and other sports, with Jon Hoefling

A talk with Jon Michael Hoefling, a sports analyst, about reading behavioral tells and indicators in football, baseball, tennis, and other sports. We focus on a 2021 story that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had a tell: how he positioned his foot before a play was a strong indicator of whether he’d run or pass. We also talk about reading tells and predicting actions in baseball, tennis, and other sports. One story we talk about is Andre Agassi’s claim that he once had a very reliable tell on Boris Becker.

This is a reshare of a July 2021 episode. For more details about what we discuss see that page.

Episode links:

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podcast

Understanding and dealing with debilitating anxiety, with Scott Stossel

A reshare of a 2021 episode where I talked with Scott Stossel, author of “My Age of Anxiety: Fear, Hope, Dread, and the Search for Peace of Mind.” (Scott is also national editor of The Atlantic.) Scott’s book is a history of the condition and treatment of anxiety, and also a personal history in which Scott talks honestly about his struggles with debilitating anxiety.

Episode links:

For more details, see the original episode post.

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podcast

Electrodermal activity is what lie detectors measure: what is it?

A talk with psychologist Christopher Moyer about electrodermal activity (EDA), also known as galvanic skin response (GSR), which is what lie detectors measure. This is a reshare of a 2019 episode. A transcript is below.

Topics discussed include: What are spikes in electrodermal activity actually telling us? We talk about its use in lie detectors. We talk about lowerings in skin conductance and what that indicates. We talk about the Scientology “e-meter.” We talk about the nature of stress; and how there can be good and bad stress. We talk about poker and gambling, including some gambling-related studies that measured electrodermal activity. 

Episode links:

For resources and studies related to this talk, see the original post.

TRANSCRIPT

Zach Elwood:

Welcome to the People Who Read People podcast, with me, Zach Elwood. This is a podcast about understanding people better: the things they do, and the things they say. You can learn more about it, and sign up for a premium subscription, at my site peoplewhoreadpeople.com.

I’m currently spending my free time working on my Defusing American Anger book, which you can learn more about at american-anger.com. Because I’m working on that, I’m sharing some early episodes of the podcast from back in the day; these are episodes I think are pretty good and interesting but haven’t got many listens because I released them when my audience was much smaller.

I’m going to share an interview I did with psychologist Christopher Moyer, about electrodermal activity, aka galvanic skin response. This is the skin response that lie detectors measure. I was thinking about this episode recently because I wanted to interview someone about lie detectors and the controversies around them, so I thought sharing this one might be a good lead in to that.

Topics we talk about include: what do spikes in electrodermal activity really tell us? What does research say about what that tells us? Clearly spikes can indicate activation of our nervous system, but what exactly is going on there? We talk about its use in lie detectors, and how lie detectors are supposed to be able to detect lies. I ask him if there can be lowerings in skin conductance and what that indicates. We talk about the nature of stress; and how there can be good and bad stress. Can it be used to measure whether someone is experiencing pain? Chris is a poker player and so we get on the topic of poker, and also talk about some gambling-related studies that involve electrodermal activity. And we get on quite a few other topics; it was an interesting talk and I think you’ll enjoy it.

Hello, and welcome to the People Who Read People podcast. I’m your host Zach Elwood. Today is December 19th, 2019. Today, I’ll be talking to Dr. Christopher Moyer Ph.D. Dr. Moyer is a counseling psychologist with expertise in treatment research and has published research on the anxiety-reducing effects of massage therapy and the neurological effects of meditation. He also happens to be an avid poker player and he began playing seriously in 1994. And it’s actually through poker that I met him online through poker-related social media. He’s taught at the University of Illinois, the University of Wisconsin Stout, the University of Denver, and he’s currently a visiting assistant professor of psychology at Augustana College in Rock Island, Illinois, where he teaches the course Psychology of Poker. He also is the lead author of the most highly cited article on massage therapy Research.

Welcome to the show, Dr. Moyer.

Christopher Moyer: Thank you. Pleased to be here.

Zach: Thanks for coming on. Today we’re going to talk about galvanic skin response, also known as electrodermal activity, EDA, and Dr. Moyer has used this technology in his research. Dr. Moyer, can you talk a little bit about what electrodermal activity is and what it measures? 

Christopher: Sure. Electrodermal activity, which also goes by other names, in the past it was called galvanic skin response and electrodermal resistance and there’s a bunch of ways to refer to it. But essentially, what the method is a way of measuring the activity of the sweat glands in a person’s palm. You can do it in other parts of the body too, but the palm is especially good for it because it is very densely packed with sweat glands. And the reason that is interesting, the reason we’d want to measure the sweat in a person’s palm or more accurately the activity of the sweat glands– it doesn’t even have to be visible sweat– is because those sweat glands are connected directly to the autonomic nervous system. And so if we want to know what is going on inside a person’s body as it relates to arousal, we can get a very direct and very rapid assessment of that by measuring the changing electrical resistance in the person’s hand. And that changes because sweat is a saline solution and so as the sweat rises or falls in the sweat glands, the electrical resistance of the person’s skin changes. This is a very rapid way of getting a measurement of what the person’s autonomic nervous system is doing. The autonomic nervous system is that branch of the nervous system that we do not have direct conscious control over. It is regulating our breathing and our body temperature and it is controlling the balance of our sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous system and it’s responsible for the fight or flight response, which most people have heard of, that ability to become very excited very rapidly in response to something stressful in our environment and it mobilizes us to fight or to flee in response to something that could be threatening.

Zach: So the response can be in response to anything that basically arouses you in some way like anxiety, pain, distress, embarrassment, fear, anger. 

Christopher: Yes. 

Zach: In short, would you say… I mean, I’ve seen it referred to as autonomous arousal and that’s just a way to say it’s exciting you in some way. Is that kind of accurate to phrase it that way?

Christopher: Yes, if by exciting, we mean physiologically. Whether the person would find it subjectively exciting is a separate issue, but what it is definitely telling us is that the person’s body is mobilizing to respond to a threat.

Zach: Yeah, and I saw a referenced quote on Wikipedia. It said that by 1972, more than 1500 articles on electrodermal activity had been published in professional publications. And today, EDA is regarded as the most popular method for investigating human psycho-physiological phenomenon. So it sounds like yeah, it’s a very respected way to measure that kind of arousal excitement.

Christopher: Yeah, there isn’t really any substantive controversy about what it’s measuring. Everyone agrees that we can measure the activity of the sweat glands and that this is an accurate representation of physiological arousal. Now, once you step a level beyond that, if we try to interpret that, then we can run into some controversy. So if a person’s physiological arousal increases, does that mean they are anxious? Does that mean they’re excited? Does that mean… It could mean a lot of different things. But at a more fundamental level, there’s very little to disagree about that it’s a way of measuring a person’s autonomic arousal.

Zach: And I guess when you do scientific research, you avoid drawing conclusions about what the underlying mechanisms are. All you can say is there was heightened electrodermal activity. You can’t draw too many conclusions based on that, even if you know that it’s some sort of arousal excitement. 

Christopher: Well, I think it depends. Depending on the context, you might be able to make reasonable inferences. Or you might be able to combine the EDA assessment with other things such as asking the person, either formally or in an unstructured way depending on the kind of research you’re doing, what their subjective experience is. So, it depends. I would not attempt to interpret an EDA trace alone and try to use that to know what’s going on in a person’s mind. But in conjunction with other things, one might be able to get closer at that. 

Zach: Right. Like if you had a study about measuring pain response, you can kind of put it in context of like, “Okay, we’re doing something painful, we can map it to the electrodermal activity. 

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Christopher: Yeah. In short, if you knew what the person was being subjected to, and then especially if you could have them report about their experience, you could use those things in combination to get at what their experience probably is.

Zach: Now, this is the same technology used in the lie detector, the polygraph. Is that right?

Christopher: It’s at least one of the channels in a polygraph test. I’m not directly… I’ve never used a polygraph in that term but I’ve used all the various technologies that a polygraph might use. As I understand it, someone who is operating a polygraph, they may be recording certainly electrodermal activity, but they may also be recording heart rate, breathing rate, and other channels that are also measures of autonomic arousal.

Zach: Yeah, I kind of wonder now that I don’t know what the actual definition of polygraph is. I don’t know if it’s a set definition of it has to include all these things that they’re measuring, or maybe it’s a kind of a broader term. I’m not really sure about that. 

Christopher: Yeah, I would suspect it’s a broader term. The word itself ‘poly’ suggests that you’re measuring several channels and you’re graphing them. Now whether there is a formal set that they always use, I would venture to guess there is not because the practice itself is, in my scientific opinion, a little bit dubious. I mean, it really gets at what we were just saying. You can record what’s going on in the person’s body that doesn’t necessarily tell you what’s going on in their mind or whether they’re trying to deceive you or not. So a lot of times, many people have a naive assumption that something like a polygraph is very accurate or very useful for lie detection, but it actually is not. 

Zach: Right. Because you’re having to draw so many interpretations about what is on the surface, just a kind of mysterious activity that could be… Like, if you get a positive response on a lie detector, it could be because you’re nervous for that question or it could be because you’re lying, etcetera, etcetera. Yeah. 

Christopher: Yes. 

Zach: This was something I wondered just looking at some electrodermal activity charts. Is there such a thing as negative spikes? Because I know you have a baseline amount of conductivity on your skin. So, is it possible to go below your baseline or is the measurement only a positive measurement? 

Christopher: I think I understand what you’re asking. You’re asking, could your electrodermal activity go down in response to something in your environment? 

Zach: Yeah. 

Christopher: Sure. Things that would be relaxing or deactivating should cause an EDA trace to go down. So in my own research, one of the things I’m most interested in is how people respond to massage therapy. And under the right conditions, we would expect that as massage continues, that a person’s autonomic arousal would decrease and that we would see this as a lowering of an EDA trace. Ultimately, there would be a baseline that you could not go below if that person’s sweat gland activity was to reach zero because they’re unconscious or something like that. Otherwise, I guess there’s an absolute baseline but in practice, you might see it go below their resting baseline. But it’s only going to go so far. 

Zach: I’d seen that you could separate the measurements into two types: the tonic and the phasic. And the tonic was more like the baseline underlying slowly changing levels versus the phasic, which was more like the rapidly changing levels. Does that make sense? Is that accurate?

Christopher: Yeah, you can use it in more than one way. So if you were trying to detect someone’s immediate response to something like in a polygraph, if you wanted to see if presenting them with certain information caused them to have a sudden spike in autonomic arousal, you can look for that. Or if you’re doing something like I was describing, like you want to see how a person’s body responds to 45 minutes of massage therapy, you can look at a much longer sampling of time and see if there is a more gradual trend. Both of those are valid ways of using it. 

Zach: Let’s talk a little bit about the work you’ve done. What kinds of—not just electrodermal activity measurements—but what has been the bulk of your work? 

Christopher: Most of what I’ve focused on is whether massage therapy is an effective treatment for anxiety and also for depression. I put anxiety ahead of that because I think that treating anxiety can often also treat depression as kind of a downstream effect that anxiety might be the most important thing for us to consider in these instances. So we’ve looked at… I’ve conducted a meta-analysis, which is a way of summarizing all of the existing studies. I’ve conducted a systematic review of whether massage therapy alters the stress hormone cortisol, which is closely related to some of the things we’re talking about in terms of autonomic arousal. I’ve conducted some laboratory research with normal persons and also with people who have anxiety disorders to see how their autonomic response is in response to massage therapy turns out to show some patterns that are a little different than one might assume. And then I’ve done various other projects. The things that unite my projects is that they’re usually related to anxiety or self-regulation. One time we did a meditation study to see if small amounts of meditation would alter brain activity. And then even in my hobbies, something like poker, I haven’t conducted any research on that. But when I’m thinking about something like that, I’m often thinking about how different situations might impact a person’s autonomic arousal. Or whether in a playing situation, whether there are things I ought to be able to look for like a change in the person’s breathing. All these kinds of things tie together. I’m pretty interested in anxiety and autonomic arousal and how those things pertain to treatment of anxiety and depression. 

Zach: You had said electrodermal activity was an unconscious autonomous response. But I’ve seen there’s some biofeedback machines they have that you basically are seeing the results of your measurements of electrodermal activity and then trying to get some kind of conscious control over it. Do you know much about that? Is that real? Or is that kind of…

Christopher: I can speak to that. And I’m going to make a point that I make to my students very often, which is sometimes I’m asked to review scientific manuscripts. A couple of years ago, I was reviewing a manuscript and the first sentence of this manuscript of this study that some other scientists wanted to publish stated unambiguously, “Human beings are unable to control their autonomic nervous system.” The sentence was something very direct like that, and I immediately thought to myself, “How could people studying this write something like that?” Now I knew what they meant. What they meant or what they had in mind is that we cannot directly influence your autonomic nervous system. So there are other branches of your nervous system that you have conscious control over. If you decide to move your arm, so long as you’re not injured or have paralysis, you decide to move your arm and it moves the way you want it to move. But what you can’t do is you can’t just will your heart rate to go up 50% or you can’t just will yourself to start sweating. Those things are under their own autonomous control. However, it would be a mistake to then say human beings cannot control their level of autonomic arousal. In fact, the opposite is true. You can understand most of human behavior as a function of people trying to regulate their arousal. And we do this by pursuing activities, we do this by consuming drugs, we do this by playing games, we do this by seeking out novelty. Pretty much all the things we do all the time are influencing our autonomic arousal. In doing that, we often are rewarded by experiencing a change in our subjective mood are in our emotional state. We get thrills. We get rewarded by changing our level of arousal. So… I forget what you asked me at first. 

Zach: The biofeedback machines. 

Christopher: Oh, right. Okay, so the biofeedback. Yeah, so it stands to reason. If you’re just sitting here and thinking to yourself, “Okay, what’s my electrodermal activity? Can I change this at all?” The answer would be probably no or not very effectively. But if you had it hooked up to a monitor such that you’ve now created a channel where you can see it, that at least introduces the possibility that you would be able to exert some feedback control over that. And thus, that’s why it’s called biofeedback. And yes, you’re able to do that. Now, whether you’re doing that directly in response to the monitor you’re looking at or whether it is a more general effect that the person is learning how to relax, which we’re all able to do to a greater or lesser extent, it would take a little bit of research to sort that difference out. But the principle behind biofeedback that you would create monitors so that a person could witness the activity of what is normally not under their control and thereby give them some access to it, that makes some sense and there’s some evidence that that will help a person to yield some control over that. 

Zach: Right. And the idea for the people that make and promote these products is that it’s a way for people to try to get in control of their anxiety by having something to focus on and something to try to see the effects of their mental state on and try to exert some control over their anxiety or whatever. 

Christopher: Yeah. Now, one of the problems with that is those things are often oversold. The people who are enthusiastic about them go too far in their claims. So I would place the value of something like that… I think there is some value in that kind of technology. But if you start talking to someone and they are talking about it like a panacea or extremely powerful method for that, they’re probably overstating at that point. The fact is we can do those things in the absence of biofeedback. So when people do something like a progressive muscle relaxation exercise or when people train themselves to do brief meditation, these are really kind of very similar practices absent to the biofeedback technology. 

Zach: Right. Because I would think if you were looking at your activity on the screen, you would be mentally playing around with different things kind of just relaxing, probably just focusing on the screen and relaxing and sitting in one place. I mean, you would eventually hit upon the things that work for you to relax. I would imagine so. I can see what you mean by it’s like an indirect thing. Is it because of their looking at the response of their activity or is it just because they’re playing around with different ways of being or something and one of them works. Which I guess that’s beneficial if that’s what happens. 

Christopher: And then there’s a separate question too, which is, might that be different for different people? There might be some people who find the display kind of hypnotic and mesmerizing and relaxing. And then there might be other people who, because they have a tendency towards anxiety, find a demand in that— 

Zach: Test-taking anxiety. One thing you had said was the heart rate was also something that wasn’t under conscious control. But people can raise their heart rate by imagining exercising and things like that, right?

Christopher: Right. When I say something like that, I’m overstating a little bit to make the point. So yeah, you have a little bit of control over that. But compare that to your somatic nervous system. If you decide to move your arm right now, it just moves under your control, whereas you can’t just will your heart rate to go up 40 beats a minute. I mean, you might be able to by thinking about something exciting. You might get it to go up a bit but you can’t just start it or stop it or double it or anything like that. 

Zach: I guess there’s the legends of yogis or Buddhist monks who can do that, but I have no clue if having that extreme control over your functions is a real thing.

Christopher: Yeah, you can’t. Those amazing stories are usually too amazing to be true. I’d put an asterisk on that because there are examples of people—Buddhist monks are a good example. They’ve been studied mostly at the University of Wisconsin– not the campus I was at, but the main campus, Wisconsin Madison– and some of what those lifetime practitioners of meditation are able to do that shows up in an MRI is amazing. You can see an incredible shift in brain activity. But that’s different than being able to just willfully increase your heart rate by 20% or 30% or decrease it by 20% or 30%. There might be cases of people who can exert a surprising… There’s always outliers but there’s also…

Zach: Yeah, generally not a known phenomenon for that.

Christopher: Yeah. There’s also the underlying physiology. For your body to work, your autonomic nervous system has to be able to function autonomously. And if it was possible for you to directly interfere with that, that would be bad. Not good. 

Zach: Yeah, really. Like you could just get in some sort of state and you accidentally hurt yourself or something. [chuckles]

Christopher: Yeah, you don’t, you don’t want to exert direct conscious control over that stuff. You want that stuff to take care of itself. 

Zach: Right, that makes sense. Let’s talk more about your work. What were you doing with electrodermal activity measurements in the massage therapy work? 

Christopher: Well, when I was at Wisconsin Stout, I became friends with a psychophysiologist, Mike Donnelly. He became a good friend of mine and he opened up a bunch of interesting ways for me to take the clinical research I was doing and extend it into psychophysiology and neuroscience. So one of the things that I had been thinking about for a long time was what is going on in the body when people are receiving something like a massage. There already was considerable evidence that massage therapy reduced anxiety pretty substantially. And people who are interested in this tend to just assume that it must be deactivating. That it’s reducing arousal and that reduction of arousal will show up as a reduction of stress hormones, and that that is yielding the clinical benefit of reduced anxiety. Now, the problem with that is even though the clinical results show this market decrease in anxiety, the effect on something like stress hormones is not there. And I’ve analyzed it back to front, up down, every single possible way. Massage therapy does not reduce stress hormones very much. This creates an interesting situation where you have a lot of people, including another scientist in the area, who’s consistently claiming that massage therapy first reduces the stress response in the body, and then that leads to a clinical effect of reduced anxiety. But the evidence doesn’t support that. 

So we started measuring people’s response of their autonomic nervous system to massage therapy in the lab and we had a control condition where the exact same people would enter the exact same lab. And everything was the same. They listened to the same music, the temperature was the same, they lay on the table the same way, they heard the same music. The only difference was sometimes when they showed up, they got a massage, and sometimes when they showed up, they did not get a massage. But everything else was the same. And if you do that and you record these autonomic variables like electrodermal activity and heart rate, you now have a pretty powerful way of assessing whether massage therapy is increasing or decreasing arousal. And it’s complicated. So at first, an intervention like massage therapy in the early parts of it increases arousal more than just laying there. But then gradually, people adapt to it and a relaxation response takes over. And across a one-hour massage, you tend to see that depending how you assess it, their arousal is decreased by this intervention. Now that’s in normal people. That’s in people who were selected according to having no health problems and are normal. But then we did this again and we selected people who met the criteria for anxiety disorders and saw something very, very interesting: which was receiving massage for people with anxiety disorders increased their autonomic arousal. It still decreased their anxiety. So when you asked them at the end of sessions how they felt and you had them complete a formal instrument to measure their anxiety, they said that their anxiety went down considerably. They never said anything like, “Oh, this was stimulating or I felt like this was revving me up or something.” They never said anything like that. They perceived it as relaxing and deactivating. And yet physiologically, it was more stimulating than the control condition of just laying there. 

This is just one example, but it points at the complicated nature of physiology to psychology. It’s not simply a matter that decreasing arousal will cause a person to feel relaxed or increasing arousal will cause a person to feel energized or tense or something. There’s a cognitive interpretation that takes place such that an increase in physiological arousal could be perceived as relaxation, or vice versa, depending on many different variables. So that’s some of the research that we did with this technology. And I’ve spoken about this at conferences and actually have it as my goal this coming semester to get the studies written up and published. They’ve been delayed a bit for various reasons that are not germane to what we’re talking about. But I’m excited to formalize those results and get them out there because they’re pretty interesting.

Zach: Was that a surprising finding when you saw that?

Christopher: Yeah, it definitely was. And if there’s anyone it shouldn’t have been too surprising to, it would have been me because of the previous meta-analytic work I’ve done. I should have maybe anticipated that possibility. And yet it was still surprising when we saw it in the results. So in a word, yeah, it’s a little bit surprising. But it also is consistent with some of the things that I’d thought about massage therapy and anxiety and autonomic arousal before. So, a mix.

Zach: I know there’s lots of theories you could make about why that was, but does one lead in your mind about why that would occur? Is there something going on consciously that it makes them uncomfortable because maybe the touches is new and weird to them? Maybe they aren’t used to that but they’re getting benefits on some unconscious level that it’s good for their body. Could you talk a little bit about what theories might explain that?

Christopher: I think there are a lot of ways to interpret it. I would go a little more basic than where you’re starting off. You know, we think about things that are stressful. In day-to-day ordinary language when we use the word stress, we tend to mean things that are unpleasant or things we would like to avoid. However, in scientific circles, that word has a slightly different meaning. And if you go back to the stress researcher, Hans Selye, Selye defined stress as the body’s response to changing conditions. If you think about it that way now, which I think is a much better definition and I think it’s much more meaningful, if we think about it that way, that’s neither positive nor negative. And so anything that places a demand on our body is stress. So if somebody puts their hands on our body and starts to manipulate our soft tissues, even though we may want that and even though we may perceive that as very positive– not everyone does but many of us would perceive that as very positive– it’s still on a physiological level a stressor. It is something that is impacting our body and our body is going to have to mobilize a response to. 

So it stands to reason that even something that is welcomed and that is viewed as positive is still a stress to the body a good one. But I think that’s where we should start off. It’s thinking about the fact that any change in the environment is a stressor. By the way, Selye had a formal definition for the absence of stress. Do you know what he said the total absence of stress was?

Zach: Death. 

Christopher: Death. Exactly. Right. Once the body is not responding to anything, then there’s no stress. I think that’s where I’d want to start. It makes sense that if we’re doing something to the body or we’re inviting the body to adapt to a situation, that’s going to show up physiologically as stress. But stress is not necessarily bad. In fact, stress can be very good. I attended a talk by Robert Sapolsky a couple of years ago and one of the things that he said is he said play is stress. We pursue things for fun because they are moderately stressful. We don’t seek out things that are horribly stressful, we seek out things that are moderately stressful because that is fun and engaging.

Zach: Right. Horror movies, sports, etc. 

Christopher: Yeah. And then you’ve got individual differences too. Some people really like horror movies, some people really like to drive fast, and then there’s other people who are like, “No, I don’t want that. I want less arousal than that.” So in addition to the general observation that stress can be engaging, then different individuals desire greater or lesser amounts of it. And that can be seen physiologically and then it can also be seen psychologically in the choices that people make. One of the interesting things about measuring this autonomic arousal in this way– this isn’t the research that I do directly but I’m aware of it– is it’s broadly seen that people’s response, their physiological response can be connected to the type of personality that they have– that people who are maybe pretty immune to a stress response are people who are a little more apt to get into trouble in their lives in terms of substance abuse or risky activity or criminal behavior. Now, this is a very general underlying effect. It’s not the case that you can measure someone’s physiology and say, oh, this person is going to be a criminal. It’s not like that. But if you measure hundreds or thousands of people and collate the data, you can say some general things about what kind of decisions people might make. And by the way, this extends into gambling as well. There’s some interesting research about how people make decisions in a gambling task based on how their body responds physiologically and whether their brain has normal or impeded access to what’s going on in their body. 

Zach: Yeah, we’ll talk more about that gambling study later. Isn’t one theory about psychopathic behavior personalities is that they don’t get excited/aroused in a mental way from interacting with people because they’re not wired as well to have that kind of interested response to people. So they end up looking for excitement in ways that don’t relate to other people and that kind of accounts for that. Have you ever heard that theory?

Christopher: Yes. One of the theories about antisocial personality disorder is that such people are chronically under-aroused. That they are constantly seeking to elevate their autonomic arousal because it’s chronically under aroused and their responsivity to stressors is much lower than the normal person’s would be. And going back to the polygraph thing, this illustrates one of the problems with a polygraph. If the person that you were interviewing who committed a crime has an antisocial personality disorder, and if this chronic under-arousal hypothesis is true and there’s evidence to support that, they are not going to show as much physiological arousal to lying as a normal person would because they don’t get upset by things like that. 

Zach: You’re catching the most guilty feeling people at the very best. [chuckles] 

Christopher: Yeah, potentially. At the very least, it introduces a wrinkle. At the very least.

Zach: Sure. So when the anxiety-prone people had those higher responses to massage, would you expect to see them have higher responses to pretty much anything higher than the normal population? Is that what you would expect? Or do you think there’s something specific about the massage that would make it greater than usual?

Christopher: No, I think that first you would see greater autonomic responsivity in those persons in response to any changing conditions.

Zach: Gotcha. That makes sense. Would it be possible using EDA to verify that someone was experiencing pain? Because I know there can be insurance claim cases where, you know, is someone really experiencing pain? Would it be possible to do a study on people to show, “Oh, this person is showing responses when we do this and not when we do this, and they’re actually experiencing an abnormal amount of pain.” 

Christopher: In a word, no. Pain is really interesting. There’s a great deal of increased interest in pain for some of the reasons that you just mentioned and also for others. A lot of people in the massage therapy and manual therapy and physical therapy communities and also in medicine more broadly are coming to have a greater appreciation for the psychological nature of pain. Pain is something that one experiences perceptually. And it can be caused by damage to the body, but it doesn’t have to be caused by damage to the body. So a person’s experience of pain is something that is subjective. So trying to assess it physiologically and trying to capture it with EDA or trying to make a determination that if a person doesn’t have a visible injury then how can they have pain turns out not to be a good way at all of making a determination of whether a person has pain. In fact, it’s very much the opposite. It’s very much that if a person says they’re in pain, we almost certainly ought to believe them. And while there may be some cases where a person is malingering, those cases are probably pretty rare. And we don’t want to make the mistake of accusing someone of malingering if there’s any chance that they’re not. 

Zach: Right, kind of like the legal system. You’d rather let a hundred guilty men go free than say somebody’s faking pain when you can’t be sure. 

Christopher: Yeah, I think the only way that you can really uncover whether someone’s faking something like that is to catch them doing something that they ought not be doing if they had pain. But even that’s complicated. That’s not—

Zach: Because you can work through pain. Yeah, you can force yourself to.

Christopher: Exactly. Pain is variable and pain is private. So it’s not even the same as someone who claims to have a broken leg and then a private investigator captures them walking down the street. I can’t think of any valid and reliable method for assessing someone’s pain that does not involve them reporting on their pain.

Zach: There was something in one of your studies, and maybe this was a meta-study too, but it said, “Anxious people actually had higher arousal rates when receiving massage than if they just lay down without massage. Yet they still reported feeling less anxious after the treatment.” Can you talk a little bit about that?

Christopher: Yeah. That goes back to what I was saying about the laboratory study where people– actually two different laboratory studies– where all conditions were controlled. They were all the same except for whether the person was receiving a massage or not. 

Zach: Oh, right. That was the same. Yeah, that was the same thing you were talking about. Gotcha. I just was misinterpreting when I was reading it.
Christopher: And by the way, one little detail with that is not only was everything about the setting the same, but we even had them lay in the same position and we even had them roll over at the same point in time whether they were receiving massage or not. So it turns out that not that long ago, I don’t know, 10 years ago or 15 years ago, someone published a really nice study that showed that autonomic arousal varies according to whether a person is lying prone or supine. And that’s an interesting finding. Just as a basic scientific finding, things like that are interesting. But it turns out that that even has maybe some practical applications that if we are… For example, if all the MRI research that we do involves people lying on their backs, then laying on your back is having a direct influence on a person’s autonomic arousal. And so there might be certain kinds of studies where this needs to be factored in.

Zach: Which is prone and supine? 

Christopher: Dammit, I knew you were going to ask me that. And I always have to…

Zach: Google real quick. [chuckles]

Christopher: I’m sure I’ll get it wrong. I want to say prone is face down, but…

Zach: Yeah, prone is face down, supine is face up. Yeah. That’s kind of interesting. It makes me think of people reporting that when they’re lying on their back, you get more nightmares. 

Christopher: Oh, yeah? 

Zach: Yeah, that’s what I’ve read. I think it’s due to the discomfort of lying on your back, like the fact that you have to push your body up more for the breaths or something like that. Don’t quote me on that. I’m quoting something I learned like 20 years ago, so pretty fuzzy in my memory. But…

Christopher: Well, even if we were just speculating on it, it could… Assuming it’s true, which we don’t know if it’s true or not, it’s an interesting possibility. But then that’s really interesting. People do have trends in the way they sleep, right? I can never fall asleep on my back. It’s amazing to me that people do that. 

Zach: Yes, it’s uncomfortable to me too. Yeah.

Christopher: Yeah. And that’s probably related to other things, right? That’s probably loosely connected to personality traits and it’s probably something that’s heritable because your parents positioned you as a baby to sleep certain ways, and then those things become ingrained in your habits. So there’s probably all kinds of small but interesting effects that are nested in something like that.

Zach: Yeah. I know, for me and talking to other people, sleeping on your back makes sense because you perceive it as uncomfortable that it would find its way into your dreams. And I think that it was specifically dreams about not being able to breathe and things like that. But I have to look that up now that you’ve got me interested in looking that up again. So, yeah, there was a study a couple of years ago that looked at electrodermal activity in problem gamblers versus normal population. Can you talk a little bit about that study?

Christopher: Yeah. A couple of minutes ago, we talked about the theory that people with antisocial personality disorder are chronically under-aroused. This is a similar idea. Not the same thing, and not saying that chronic gamblers are the same as antisocial personality disorder. But there’s a theory that people who develop gambling problems develop that because they don’t experience rewards in the same way, and specifically that the way their body responds to very small versus very large rewards is not as differentiated as it would be for other people. And so that study that you tipped me to and that we looked at, they tested that and they used a laboratory procedure known as the Iowa gambling task, if I remember correctly, that’s been used in lots of other studies. And they had people who were known to have problem gambling and they also had a group of normal people. And their hypothesis was confirmed that the problem gamblers showed essentially less variable reactivity. They kind of had the same response whether a reward or win was small or very large, whereas the healthier people or the normal people had a response that was more flexible that they had a greater physiological response to greater reward. So the thinking is that the problem gamblers, one of the reasons they have a harder time having adaptive behavior is that the response of their body is not in line with what’s going on in the environment.

Zach: Yeah, it was interesting. And when I put up the blog post for this episode, I’ll include links to that study. It was really interesting, especially this graph they show of the average responses on the EDA for the problem gamblers for large wins, small wins, losses, and the same for the healthy control group. Just really interesting seeing the differences in the average responses. The problem gamblers’ responses are very muted for both the losses and the wins, versus the healthy control group, the win relay spikes big and the loss has a big effect too. So yeah, it’s just really interesting seeing how that plays out with the EDA. One interesting thing I noticed, which I didn’t really see and maybe I missed it in the write up was for the healthy control group, there was a big spike on the large win. You see an immediate spike up. But for the loss for the healthy control group, there was a more gradual uplift to the EDA. And it almost made me think it takes longer to process mentally the loss or something versus the immediate jolt of the win. Yeah, it makes me just think of my own experience. You know, gambling playing poker is like whenever I’ve gotten upset about a loss, it takes me a little while to process that and I’m probably at my peak upsetness a few seconds after it happens, versus the immediate jolt of winning, you realize you win immediately and that’s exciting. Yeah, I kind of related to seeing that effect in there. 

Christopher: It makes sense. 

Zach: Yeah. These kinds of studies are interesting because I think it shows some of the problems trying to interpret these results. Because even the people who wrote this up pointed out it’s hard to draw too many conclusions from this because for one example, maybe the problem gamblers are just so desensitized from gambling higher that it’s hard to get a response from them in general. They’re used to gambling much more money so the small stakes of the study which were like $50 total just is not enough to stimulate them. So they pointed that out at the end and I thought it was just interesting. It’s kind of a similar thing with a lot of psychological research where it’s often hard to get to the underlying interpretations.

Christopher: Right. Hypothetically, we can imagine studies that would be perfectly good at getting at that. But in an ethical sense, you can’t do them. This is another thing I talk through with my students and some of them get it and then there’s probably others who think that I’m insane when I talk about this stuff. If you could take a bunch of babies and randomly assign them to different conditions and raise some as gamblers and some not as gamblers and so on, you could control for all those variables. But of course, you can’t do that. And so a piece of research like this has to work with existing groups. But then that introduces the kind of compounds that you just mentioned. I mean, when there are existing groups, these groups have different histories. And the gamblers have an extensive gambling history and so their whole way of relating to this kind of thing has been altered. And so now if you see a difference between the two groups, you can’t be certain if it was a preexisting difference or if the difference is a result of their experience, or whether it’s a combination of those things. 

Zach: Right. Because whatever makes them particular to that group changes them in some way. 

Christopher: Yeah. And it’s also funny, as you’re saying, that the rewards weren’t that large for them. I mean, you’re a poker player and I’m a poker player and so you’ve undoubtedly had this experience where you’re maybe talking about a pretty small game you were in, but you’re talking to someone who doesn’t play poker. And the amount of money that a hand was worth comes up and they’re completely shocked. They’re like, “You’re playing a hand of poker for $850?” They can’t even imagine such a thing. 

Zach: They’re like, “Okay. Well, you’re a degenerate gambler.”

Christopher: Yeah, they think you’re a maniac. [chuckles]

Zach: Right. Different worlds for sure. Yeah, I should say also– I should have lead with this– the name of that study was called, or at least the paper title was called “An Examination of Problem Gamblers Skin Conductance Responses to Large And Small Magnitude Rewards.” That was by Lisa Lole and Craig Gonsalvez if anyone wants to look that up. Also, I want to mention too, I’m sure you’ve heard that the Scientology E-meter is basically just a galvanic skin response reader, right? 

Christopher: Yeah. And that also points, you know, I was thinking about that a couple of minutes ago in case it came up. That point’s sort of one of the themes that you and I are hitting on, which is it stands to reason that they would like something like that because it’s so ambiguous. You can interpret it however you like. Yeah, that’s all it is. 

Zach: Yeah, that’s pretty interesting. That’s pretty genius of them to take something– and I don’t know if they were the first people to do that because I’ve seen other wishy-washy, pseudo, really new age crap where they’re using electrodermal activity to tell you that we’re going to give you some sort of reading about such and such, like your energy or your aura or your sensitivity to foods or something. It’s just all this nonsense, you know? I don’t know where Scientology’s use of that fits into it. That’d be interesting to kind of see the history of other wacky groups using it for those kinds of deceitful purposes. But yeah, it’s just pretty interesting. Yeah. Like you said, it’s so subjective.

Christopher: Yeah, I don’t know what their exact protocol for that is but I can just imagine that you can take it in any direction you want.

Zach: It made me think too when we were talking about the ability to use some sort of biofeedback to alter it. That really plays into it too. Because you can imagine somebody in the Scientology world being like, “Oh, well, I’ve been able to change this over time and get less response so I’m more clear. I’ve gotten rid of whatever the aliens are attached too.” It really sets it up perfectly for this ambiguous measurement that you can have some effect on over time or have different… It’ll give you different responses in different states of being or in different situations. So it’s just a great [cult tool], you know?

Zach: And I’m not saying they do this, but it’s also something that you could very easily manipulate behind the scenes if you wanted to. 

Zach: Yeah, that’s true. Yeah, I didn’t think about that aspect of it. Yeah. I’m curious, can you easily get an E-meter? I assume it’s only the higher-up people who can administer the E-meter readings. 

Christopher: I’ve seen them doing it in the field. When I used to go to the farmers market in Urbana, Illinois, there would be a table set up there and a couple of Scientologists and they would do it right there. So it’s not something that they particularly keep hidden. And the technology involved is any amateur hobbyist could assemble such a device nowadays.

Zach: That’d be a good idea. I could think about taking my own homemade E-reader into the Scientology shops and comparing the responses. [laughs] Also one really interesting thing I read about EDA was saying that it was Carl Jung who popularized it in the first place. Do you know much about that? 

Christopher: I know a little bit about that. This is a technology that’s been around for a very long time. And I say that cautiously because the way that they did it back then was much more involved than the way we do it now. People have been measuring this parameter of the body since the 1800s, but back then involved tanks of saltwater and was a pretty complicated thing to do. Whereas nowadays, you can– using a couple of medical electrodes and a device that hooks up to a computer, it’s kind of all self-contained. You can do it much more easily. But Jung was one of the people who tried out that approach in combination with word association tasks and he found it really compelling. But frankly, I think Jung is one of the most embarrassing figures in the entire history of psychology. 

Zach: [chuckles] Yeah, I’m with you there. 

Christopher: Yeah. And I want to be cautious there. We’re all products of our own time and we’re all vulnerable to getting excited about technology. So I can just imagine Jung’s time if you connected with a physiologist and that physiologist said, “Hey, I’ve got a device here that will show you alterations in the person’s nervous system in response to whatever you tell them.” I mean, that would be pretty mind-blowing and pretty exciting. So I can see why they would be extremely excited about that. 

Zach: Yeah, this actually sounds like the… From what I know of Jung, this is the most legitimate-sounding thing he was ever involved in. It was kind of more on the scientific side, and it just sounded pretty cool. The name of the book was “Studies in Word Analysis” and it was published in 1906. That was the English-translated title. And I was actually looking for it because it sounded interesting but I couldn’t find an English translation. I guess it’s rare to be able to find it.

Christopher: It probably wouldn’t be interesting. But fast forward to today, and frankly, I think a lot of us are vulnerable to modern neuroscience in a similar way to the way Jung was vulnerable to that a hundred years ago. I think there are a lot of us who are conditioned to believe that we can look into a person’s brain and by seeing what portion lights up– to use the phrase that they love to use in research descriptions– that we now have this incredible insight into how the mind works. And yes, it’s interesting and exciting and it’s going to lead to discoveries, but are we peering into the minds of people? No. There’s so much complexity involved. That’s another thing I try to get across to my students. The balance is you have to not seem too jaded and you have to not crush their enthusiasm for discoveries, but at the same time you want to get across… There’s incredible limitations to this that discovering that on average, a portion of the brain is more active in response to a certain thing is a discovery in and of itself. But that’s a long, long, long way from being able to predict someone’s behavior or knowing what they’re thinking. 

Zach: Right. And just all these unknowns about the cause versus the effect. Like, if you can see something and pattern in someone’s brain that’s different from the normal population, is the difference in the brain causing their state or their symptoms? Or is their symptoms and state causing the effect on the brain? 

Christopher: Precisely. 

Zach: A lot of unknowns there. Yeah. 

Christopher: Yeah, and that’s a really important point that a lot of people fail to understand. That at a very basic level, all of this neuroscience research– well, there’s some exceptions– but the majority of this neuroscience research is correlational research. And that’s a major shortcoming.

Zach: Also, one thing Jung said that was interesting about EDA was he allegedly said, “Aha, a looking glass into the unconscious!” about it. So right, it’s kind of interesting.

Christopher: I mean, a little bit. In a sense, it is. That’s also why people are excited about the possibility that you could get a polygraph to detect someone’s efforts to deceive. Under the right conditions with the right people, you probably can. But that’s a lot different than expecting it’s going to work under all kinds of different conditions with all kinds of different people.

Zach: Right, exactly. Yeah, knowing it works for one person is much different than saying it applies to everyone. Yeah, that’s a good point. Though the Jung stuff, the word association stuff, really got me interested in getting my own EDA detector and playing around with it with me and my wife just seeing what words and stuff would have an effect. I think you and I talked about getting one too where when we were playing poker or something. I think that’d be pretty interesting.

Christopher: Since you and I talked about that, I was thinking about what a curious poker variant it could be if everyone you were playing with had a monitor over their head that showed their EDA. And then it got me thinking like, “Okay. Well, if you did that, how would you interpret it? Would it be useful?” And I don’t know… I think you would run into the same problems that you highlight in all your material on tells. And frankly, what makes your material on tells good is that you are constantly reminding people of the importance of context. So if you were playing against somebody and they made a big bet on the river and you saw their EDA go up, is their EDA going up because they’re bluffing or because they’re value betting? Are they an experienced player or inexperienced player? Or do they even know if they’re value betting or bluffing? [crosstalk] Right, there’s even things people can do. So it’s interesting as a possibility, I don’t know what would happen. But would it be a window into their unconscious? No. 

Zach: It would make for really good television, though. They have the heart rate, the EDA, they have everything. 

Christopher: It could be really unique. Yeah. If you had a TV show like the old PokerStars Big Game, except you had them wired up to EDA, that could be pretty interesting.

Zach: Yeah, I’m surprised they haven’t done that. I had that idea years ago. I was like, “That’d make for an awesome show.” I actually think there was some show where they did that, at least the heart rate or something. There was some short-lived program production, I kind of remember seeing that. Any other things come to mind? Any interesting EDA things spring to mind?

Christopher: Oh, I don’t know about EDA, specifically. But in the lead-up to recording this with you, I’ve just been doing more thinking about autonomic response and poker. And my semester just ended. I didn’t get to play much poker during the semester but the semester ended a few days ago and so I’ve played a few sessions since then. I’ve really been trying to pay attention to my own sort of feelings of arousal as certain things came up in the game. Again, just to reiterate what you sort of report in your information about tells, is it’s just so variable. Even paying attention to that and knowing what I know about psychophysiology, I can’t discern clear relationships. If you were to ask me which is more physiologically arousing—making a big value bet with a hand that I’m sure to win or making a big bluff—intuitively, I would think that the bluff would be more physiologically arousing. But in my recent experience, thinking about it, I don’t think that’s the case. I think I experience more physiological arousal when I’m going to win a big pot.

Zach: Yeah, it’s interesting. Also, it’s just these unknowns of your state at any given time. Because I know from my experiences, some days I’m just more anxious than others. I can be anxious, like winning a big pot or something or having a big hand and betting, and then other days, I’m just for whatever reason more calm and the stuff doesn’t really affect me. It’s just a lot of unknowns. Yeah. 

Christopher: Yeah. There’s also systematic things. I’m pretty sure that my reactivity probably decreases across a session. That those first couple hands, especially if they’re momentous hands, have a big physiological effect. But if you’ve been playing for a few hours, I think the reactivity probably goes way down just because you’re doing the same thing for a while.

Zach: And also just like blood sugar level kind of effects too. Like I know, for me, not eating for a while ramps up my anxiety and things like that.

Christopher: Could be. I mean, it would just be so complicated. So when you see a study like the one we were discussing where they’re doing that, they do that under completely artificial conditions. And sometimes students get upset with that. They’re like, “Well, okay, they found this under those conditions, but those conditions are totally artificial.” And that’s like, “Well, the artificial conditions are a strength and a weakness depending on how you look at it.” You know, it’s a weakness in that this is not how gambling works in the real world. On the other hand, it’s a strength because the only way you’re going to be able to detect certain effects is if you control for all the competing explanations. So yeah, this stuff gets more complicated than people realize. And when you’re starting to deal with the intersection between physiology and psychology, it gets really complicated really fast. 

Zach: Right. It’s usually when I read about psych studies in mainstream, they get picked up by mainstream news outlets so I’m always like, “Well, they’ve really made this sound really simple. But it’s much more complex when you actually think about it.” 

Christopher: Yeah, sometimes you get simple results or clear-cut results or unambiguous results, but sometimes the inferences that are made as a result of those. I’m thinking right now about the meditation study that I did with a team of students a few years ago. This was kind of a new direction for my research but I had a student who approached me and wanted to do research on meditation, which I had never done. But I was like, “Well, okay, what I’m doing research on now has a meditative aspect to it. So I think we could probably do something.” And just to get to the point, we ended up designing… We had very few resources so there was no way we were going to be able to study hundreds of people and there was no way we were going to be able to administer hundreds of hours of training and study. So, working with the limitations we had, we said, “Okay, is there any possibility we’ll see a neurological effect if the amount of training people get is very small?” And no one had done a study exactly like that before. So we did it. Using a very small number of people in a very small amount of training, we uncovered a huge neurological difference. It was really amazing. Where these people who meditated only about seven minutes a day, in comparison to people who were not meditating– and these groups were formed by random assignment so there was no difference in the groups to begin with– the people who meditated just seven minutes a day showed this remarkable shift in their alpha wave activity from the right to the left hemisphere, which is consistent with positive mood states. So on the one hand, the finding was completely unambiguous. Meditation caused this huge shift in brain activity that we were looking for. Now, what does that mean? Does that mean that it was good for their mental health? That it made them more resilient, that it helped their focus? I mean, we don’t know that. We didn’t assess that directly. So you can have a case where the effect is crystal clear and unambiguous, but what it means or what it extends to is maybe much less clear.

Zach: So wrapping up, this has been Dr. Christopher Moyer, Ph.D. His last name is M O Y E R, if you want to search for his work online. Do you want to mention any specific ways people can get in touch with you or any upcoming projects you have now?

Christopher: The project right now is I’m at a new school here at Augustana and I’m just getting settled in. I don’t even… You know, they’ve got a blank faculty page set up for me but I haven’t even filled it in. People who want to look for my papers can find my Google Scholar page by searching for ‘Christopher Moyer massage’, that will come up. If someone would want to email me about something, [email protected]. Other than that, I don’t have a webpage or anything like that. But that’s how people can reach me.

Zach: Can people take your psychology poker course on its own or is it just part of a curriculum?

Christopher: I’m only going to be teaching it for the first time here starting in about three weeks, so we stated that as I teach that course. But more accurately, I’m about to teach that course. And it’s going to be a special topics course here at Augustana. Presently, there’s no way to take that course if you’re not an Augustana student. However, once I have the syllabus finished, I would potentially be willing to share the syllabus. But for poker players, I don’t think there’s going to be any surprises in there. I’m going to assign some things that poker players are mostly already going to be familiar with. This is a class that endeavors to get students interested in psychology by using poker as sort of a lens for psychology to get us thinking about things like you and I’ve been talking about the relationship between arousal and decision-making. But it’s also going to introduce them to things like quantitative decision-making, risk assessment, all those types of things. 

Zach: Yeah, it makes sense. That’s pretty smart. I mean, use things that people are already interested in to get them interested in deeper topics. Yeah, that makes sense. 

Christopher: Yeah, hopefully. I’m excited about it. 

Zach: Cool. Well, thanks a lot, Dr. Moyer, for coming on. I appreciate it. 

Christopher: Hey, thank you very much. I appreciate it. 

Zach: All right, bye-bye. 

This has been the People Who Read People podcast hosted by Zach Elwood. If you enjoyed it, please consider leaving a rating or review on whatever platform you listen on. It’s much appreciated. My website is readingpokertells.com.